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The Third Plenary Meeting of the Academic Committee of the China Energy Modeling Forum was Held
May 27, 2018
On the afternoon of May 27, 2018, the third plenary meeting of the Academic Committee of the China Energy Modeling Forum (CEMF) was held at Tsinghua University. The meeting listened to and commented on the development of CEMF's work in the past year, including the release of the results of theme study
1 "Multi-model comparative study of China's carbon emission peak" (CEMF01), theme study
2 "China's 2050 low-emission development strategy research " (CEMF02) phased results and next-step work plan, as well as the model technical seminars organized by the forum, the progress of the model capacity building, and the development of the CEMF model scenario parameter comparison platform. The meeting was chaired by Professor He Jiankun, Chairman of the CEMF Academic Committee and former Executive Vice President of Tsinghua University.
 
Theme study 1 "Multi-model comparative study of China's carbon emission peak" (CEMF01) simulated and predicted the peak time and peak emission of carbon emission in the whole industry, and analyzed the factors affecting the carbon emission level and peak time of the whole industry. After a comparative analysis, it is believed that China is likely to reach the peak of carbon emissions before 2030. Relevant research results have been officially published in the English version of "Progress in Climate Change Research" in the form of a special issue. The academic committee members fully affirmed the significance, necessity and innovation of CEMF01 in research methods and other aspects, and believed that these research work and conclusions will help my country achieve the peak of carbon emissions, reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP, and increase the proportion of non-fossil energy, etc. These goals play an important reference role.
 
According to the requirements of the "Paris Agreement", each contracting party needs to submit its own low-emission development strategy (LEDS) before 2020. In this context, in December 2016, CEMF launched the theme study II: China's 2050 low-emission development strategy research ( CEMF02) research work, set up six thematic research groups including macroeconomics, energy system, agriculture and land use, climate change, environment and health, waste and non-carbon dioxide, and built a comprehensive analysis and evaluation by integrating the strength of domestic and foreign model teams The framework, with the short and mid-term development goals of 2020 and 2035 as the time node, explores the long-term goal of low-emission development of greenhouse gases (including non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases) by 2050, and explores a low-emission development path that is in line with China's national conditions.
 
In the past year, CEMF held a number of exchange activities such as pre-research model technology seminars and LEDS model technology international seminars. More than 50 domestic and foreign model teams from various fields participated in CEMF seminars and research activities. , CEMF also conducted in-depth discussions and exchanges with industry experts on future economic and social development, population structure changes, industrial structure upgrades, and technological progress trends. CEMF has carried out cooperative research with more than ten model teams from well-known government agencies, think tanks, and scientific research institutes. At the same time, in order to enhance the understanding of the analysis model by policy makers and non-model practitioners, and improve the transparency of my country's energy, environment, and economic models, CEMF has developed and built a model scenario and parameter comparison platform, and the industry index data related to the model is included in the same model Search, display and compare in different situations, different models and different situations.
 
The academic committee listened to the preliminary work results of the six thematic research groups and the next research plan report, and discussed the CEMF02 research plan and the outline of the research report. Academic committee members and participating experts spoke highly of CEMF's work on low-emission development strategy research, and believed that this work should cooperate with major domestic model teams, act in advance, conduct in-depth discussions, and start low-emission development for the country in terms methodology and research teams. Strategic research is prepared. Future research results will provide a scientific basis and theoretical reference for the country to formulate low-emission strategies and achieve the country's established development goals in 2035 and 2050. The academic committee members and participating experts suggested that CEMF should continue to promote this work, strengthen the communication and integration between teams and the work connection between model teams, establish an effective research quality control system, and explore Chinese characteristics. , technically and economically feasible emission reduction routes, and submit scientific and reasonable policy recommendations to relevant departments. The members also suggested that CEMF's work should be effectively connected with the national low-emission strategy work.