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Review of International Symposium on Low Emission Development Strategy Modeling Technology (3): Application of Climate Change Comprehensive Assessment Model in Low-Emission Development Strategy
Jan 23, 2018

CEMF January 23, 2018

In recent years, China's energy economic model research, especially the comprehensive assessment model research work has made great progress. In this theme unit, many domestic and foreign experts introduced the basic situation, application scenarios and policy impact of different models.

1. Leon Clarke (Senior Researcher, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL))
 
Application of the Global Integrated Assessment Model at the Regional Level
 
Dr. Clarke first outlined the development process of the comprehensive assessment model. Basically, every ten years, the comprehensive assessment model will raise new questions and goals, make appropriate adjustments to the model, and improve the modeling by introducing more and more influencing factors. For example, the focus of the past ten years has been to analyze the complex relationship between human beings and the earth system from local to global. In his speech, Dr. Clarke introduced the application of the global comprehensive assessment model at the regional level, taking the water supply and demand in the United States and China's carbon storage and emissions as examples.
 
2. Jiang Kejun (Researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission)
 
"IPAC Research and Its Policy Application"
 
Mr. Jiang first introduced the main components of China’s Comprehensive Assessment of Energy and Environmental Policy (IPAC) model, which includes many different types of models, including top-down models and bottom-up models, reflecting the IPAC model diversity. Then Mr. Jiang introduced the latest research results of the IPAC model. The study took China and Beijing as the research objects to simulate the energy structure of carbon emissions under the 1.5-degree scenario. Finally, policy recommendations for energy structure transformation are given.
 
3. Ken Oshiro (Chief Consultant of Mizuho Information Research Institute (MHIR))
 
"Asia-Pacific Comprehensive Evaluation Model-AIM Model and Its Application"
 
Dr. Oshiro first briefly introduced the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM) model, which can assess the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and countermeasures, and can assess and quantitatively describe the status quo of low-carbon regions in Asia, thereby promoting countries and regions to adopt more effective mitigation measures. Then, Dr. Oshiro took Japan as an example to explain the impact of the AIM model on Japan's energy and climate policies, and the latest progress in Japan's long-term scenario simulation work based on the AIM model, especially its sub-model-Enduse model, which will formulate Japan's 2050 positive contribution to the path to zero emissions.
 
4. Guo Fei, Researcher at International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
 
"The MESSAGE Model and the Development and Application of the Chinese MESSAGE Model"
 
Dr. Guo first introduced the MESSAGE model and the development and application of the Chinese MESSAGE model. The MESSAGE model is widely used all over the world. It has been established for a long time and has a wide range of methods and technologies. In response to China's unique regional characteristics, economic environment background, and energy demand, the IIASA team has developed the Chinese MESSAGE model in recent years, focusing on residents' energy needs, industry There are four aspects: enterprise energy demand, power production and transportation module, and coal mining and processing module. Finally, Dr. Guo introduced a multi-model comparative study that his team is conducting to determine the model methods, technical levels and macroeconomic parameters adopted by various models in the reduction of power industry emissions in various countries, so as to help decision makers better It is easy to understand the different conclusions drawn by different models.
 
5. Christoph Bertram (Researcher, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))
 
Implications of Short-Term Emission Reduction Policies for Long-Term Decarbonization and Sustainable Development
 
Dr. Christoph Bertram first briefly introduced the comprehensive assessment model developed by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - REMIND model and some of its ongoing research topics, emphasizing the combination of global emission reduction goals and national development paths. Dr. Bertram's model research believes that in order to achieve the 2050 strategic goals, it is necessary to achieve decarbonization, electrification and conversion efficiency of the power industry; in the formulation of short-term emission reduction policies, it is necessary to carefully design relevant tools and consider how to realize the interaction between relevant elements impact; the realization of longer-term sustainable development goals is more dependent on multi-dimensional policy design.
 
6. Chen Wenying (Professor, Institute of Energy, Environment and Economics, Tsinghua University)
 
"China TIMES Series Model Development and Application"
 
Professor Chen first introduced the development of China's MARKAL/TIMES model, which is a dynamic energy system optimization model, including a national model, and a provincial and regional model, which is mainly used to predict energy demand. Professor Chen listed the application of the model in the prediction of energy supply and demand in different industries such as industry, construction, and transportation, as well as the carbon emission reduction results of various industries under different emission reduction scenarios, and the synergistic effect of air pollution control.
 
7. Oleg Lugovoy (Senior Economist, Environmental Protection Agency)
 
"Comprehensive Assessment Model and Research on China's Low Emission Development Strategy"
 
Dr. Lugovoy introduced the CEMF02 research topic design: Analysis of China's low-emission development strategy research through multi-model analysis. In his speech, he introduced the current work and progress of the CEMF team. Based on the CEMF01 research model, CEMF02 aims to use and compare a variety of energy, economic, and environmental models, taking the near and mid-term development goals of the 13th Five-Year Plan and the 14th Five-Year Plan as practical nodes, and discussing the low-temperature greenhouse by 2050 The long-term goal of the development of gas (including non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas) emissions, and the construction of a low-emission development path that meets the policy requirements of China's technology.