CEMF January 12, 2018

 

Time: 9:00-18:00, January 12-12, 2018

 

Venue: Lecture Hall on the first floor of Institute of Agricultural Environment and Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

 

On January 12, 2018, the 10th technical seminar of the China Energy Modeling Forum - "Climate Change-Science, Impact and Adaptation" was held at the Institute of Agricultural Environment and Sustainable Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences in Beijing. The seminar was hosted by the China Energy Modeling Forum and undertaken by the Institute of Agricultural Environment and Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. Domestic well-known research teams and experts in the field of "Climate Change-Science, Impact and Adaptation" gathered here to discuss future climate change trends, climate change mitigation and adaptation measures, and related modeling methods.

 

Zhang Yanqing, Director of the Institute of Agricultural Environment and Sustainable Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, and Professor He Jiankun of Tsinghua University, Chairman of the Academic Committee of the China Energy Modeling Forum, delivered speeches at the meeting. Director Zhang Yanqing, on behalf of the Institute of Agricultural Environment and Sustainable Development of the Academy of Agricultural Sciences, expressed his gratitude to all the experts and scholars present; The cooperation and exchanges of the model team in this field put forward earnest prospects. Professor He Jiankun, as the representative of the organizer, briefly introduced the original intention and current progress of the China Energy Modeling Forum; at the same time, as the convener of this theme, he was deeply impressed by the important status of climate change-related research and discussions in China. He mentioned that he hoped to demonstrate my country's overall advantages and progress in this field through the forum on the basis of strengthening domestic exchanges and cooperation. He Jiankun and Lin Erda chaired the morning and afternoon meetings.

 

A total of 9 experts and scholars made reports at this symposium, discussing the possible impact of climate change and possible countermeasures from their own research perspectives.

 

Academician Ding Yihui of the Chinese Academy of Engineering discussed climate change from the perspective of uncertainty. He introduced domestic and foreign scientific research results that can be used as evidence of global warming; the status of environmental risks in various risks faced by human beings; Disasters and their risks. Based on the currently available data and risk estimates, it will be a challenge that human beings must accept to control the increase in temperature between 1.5°C and 2°C. For this reason, the main inspiration for domestic policies and countermeasures is to increase emission reduction efforts, and to introduce countermeasures.

 

Lin Erda, former director of the Institute of Environmental Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, introduced the impact China will suffer under the global temperature control of 1.5 degrees and the corresponding adaptation countermeasures. The report is mainly divided into three parts: the first is an introduction to the calculation method of the global 1.5-degree warming scenario; the second is to show the model simulation results of food security, ecosystems and related economic issues under the warming scenario; the third is to summarize the 1.5-degree warming scenario. Recommendations for adaptation measures under high-temperature warming scenarios, including reduction of exposure and vulnerability, incremental adjustment, and political-economic and social transformation.

 

Xu Ying, chief expert of the National Climate Center, mainly introduced the concept of climate model in climate change science from the macro level, and systematically summarized the application of climate model in climate change research. She sorted out the climate system models, greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and socio-economic development scenarios used in the six IPCC assessment reports one by one, and briefly introduced the specific progress of the National Climate Center in the application of climate models.

 

The topic of the report by Professor Gao Qingxian from the Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences was the impact of climate change on air pollution. Professor Gao selected a typical air pollution process, analyzed and demonstrated the obvious correlation between the Siberian high pressure index, wind field, air pressure and other climatic state indicators and the haze in North China, and put forward a clear opinion that the high pressure weather system is beneficial to air quality.

 

From the perspective of agricultural researchers, Ju Hui, a researcher at the Institute of Environmental Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, reported on his team's model assessment work on the impact of climate change on agriculture, and proposed prospects for the development and application of future agricultural models. At present, the research team mainly uses the DSSAT crop model to carry out regional-scale agricultural simulation evaluation. In the future, it will also consider implementing the model in details such as crop growing seasons and the impact of various meteorological elements, and further applying it to agricultural production risk assessment.

 

Researcher Wu Jianguo from the Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences shared the team's work on the impact of climate change on species in recent years from the perspective of ecological researchers. The report fully lists the empirical research results on species distribution changes under climate change at home and abroad. Also, it introduces the team's modeling method using climate models to analyze changes in domestic bird species. Regarding the question of why the climate has changed but no changes in species have been seen, researcher Wu said that there is currently an explanation that species distribution lags behind in responding to climate change, and the real reason needs to be further explored.

 

The report of Gao Xuejie, a researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, is the recent main work progress of the regional climate model RegCM4. The model is based on the data of more than 2,000 domestic observation stations, and has higher resolution and better fitting effect in the simulation of winter and summer precipitation, temperature, and energy consumption distribution. At present, the model has been applied in specific studies such as predicting climate change in the surrounding areas of Xiongan and evaluating changes in thermal comfort days in densely populated areas in China.

 

Associate Professor Niu Jun from China Agricultural University focuses on the response of land surface hydrological processes to climate change. Taking the Xijiang River Basin as the research object, his team completed the evaluation of the impact of the increase in carbon dioxide concentration within the watershed on the water cycle in the watershed, mainly considering the relationship between carbon dioxide-vegetation evapotranspiration-surface runoff. In addition, the team's work also includes using the CGE model to predict the response of land surface hydrological processes under future climate change, and combining the field experiment model to simulate the impact of climate change on the net irrigation water storage in Northwest China.

 

Researcher Xie Wei from Peking University School of Modern Agriculture reported on the impact of extreme drought and high temperatures on the global beer supply. He first explained the significance of the study from the relationship between beer and barley cultivation and its important position in daily consumption. Afterwards, the forecast of high temperature and drought climate, the impact on barley production, and the impact on beer consumption are step by step, and the model application, adjustment and main results of each link are introduced.

 

In the discussion sessions in the morning and afternoon, in addition to further exchanges on the technical details of the reports, the scholars also focused on the ecological impact of global precipitation redistribution caused by climate change, and the need for the Paris Agreement to reduce the temperature control conditions to 1.5 degrees Celsius characteristics, how to enhance the accuracy of economic and social models, and so on. On the other hand, some scholars continue to express their gains and impressions through this forum, and look forward to more cooperation and exchanges between scientific research teams from different research institutions and even different disciplines to jointly develop and study climate change models or various models that take climate change into account.

 

Meeting Schedule