CEMF 5th Technical Symposium--Macroeconomic Model
Oct 13, 2017
CEMF October 13, 2017
Time: October 11, 2017
Location: Beijing, China
On October 11, 2017, the fifth technical seminar of China Energy Modeling Forum was held in Beijing. This technical seminar took China's Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) as the research background, shared and discussed the simulation methods and application results of the macroeconomic model, and put forward prospects for the optimization and expansion of the model.
Mr. Li Shantong, an academic member of CEMF, and Mr. Hu Xiulian, a researcher at the Energy Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, co-chaired the meeting. More than ten energy model teams from the Development Research Center of the State Council, the National Information Center, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tsinghua University, Peking University, Fudan University and other units gathered here , respectively introducing the composition of each model team, research history, model application results and potential problems, etc. The research of different model teams generally shows the trend of simultaneously developing global and regional scales, combining macro and micro systems, and linking economic production with multiple models such as society, environment, and health. At the same time, the application directions of the models of each research team also have their own characteristics: for example, they pay special attention to an important national production industry, focus on a certain technical detail of model construction, or expand the application to disaster loss assessment, future technology optimization paths, etc.
Associate Professor Chang Shiyan from Tsinghua University introduced the current progress of the team on behalf of the energy management and climate policy team of Tsinghua University. The team has built global and national CGE and TIMES energy technology models, respectively, and applied them to energy transition scenarios. In addition, the team is working with other advantageous teams at Tsinghua University to build a comprehensive model that includes multiple modules of energy emissions, air quality, climate and health.
Researcher Zhang Yaxiong of the National Information Center introduced the compilation method and progress of China's inter-regional input-output table in 2012, and explained the consistency between the national table and the provincial table.
Researcher He Jianwu from the Development Research Center of the State Council introduced the basic situation of the development of the DRC-CGE model on behalf of the National Research Center team. Since the 1990s, the DRC team has built multiple sets of models at the national and regional levels, focusing on the modeling of energy consumption and environmental pollution, and splitting the power sector in detail. Currently, the team is conducting research on China's economic outlook in 2050.
Researcher Li Jifeng from the State Information Center introduced the application of the CGE model based on the State Information Center. This model is based on the introduction of the Australian GEMPACK model and has been revised according to the characteristics of my country's basic data. It is characterized by multi-level parameter settings and nested production functions, so as to more accurately describe technological substitution and technological progress.
Dai Hancheng, a researcher at Peking University, focused on his understanding of the energy evaluation model and his outlook for future research. In particular, he mentioned that in the current and future global situation, an excellent model team is needed to support the country's participation in climate negotiations and strive for greater international interests for the country.
Researcher Zhang Yumei from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences introduced the CGE model in the field of agricultural public policy on behalf of the IFPRI team. The team's model applications mainly focus on the impact of agricultural research investment, water conservancy, agricultural subsidies and other policies, as well as infrastructure construction on macroeconomics and food security. In particular, she introduced the team's work on the link between the CGE model and the hydrological and water quality model.
Associate Researcher Zou Lele from the Institute of Strategic Consulting, Chinese Academy of Sciences introduced the basic situation of his research team. The team is subdivided into macro group and micro group, and tries to combine the two. For example, when studying the impact of a macro decision-making, the decision-making differences of enterprises of different scales, different technical levels, and different production costs are considered, and decision-making simulations at the micro level are carried out.
Dr. Qian Haoyu from Fudan University shared the research team's research on the parameter setting of the deeply nested CES production function. The team utilized the latest machine learning tools to estimate the algorithm for the parameters of the CES function, as well as the application of the algorithm based on the WIOD database. Through empirical analysis, the team believes that the value of the elasticity of substitution commonly used in China is too small, and the estimated results obtained by the application of the model are relatively conservative.
Professor Liang Qiaomei from the Beijing Institute of Technology introduced the China Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis Model (CEEPA) developed by the BIT team. From the perspective of the global economy, the model analyzes the impact of China's different energy and environmental policies on China's social economy, providing a flexible and efficient platform for more researchers. In the future, the model will be expanded towards the construction of a comprehensive assessment model and the introduction of climate change modules.
Researcher Lou Feng from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences introduced the Chinese macro-meso-micro integrated CGE model developed by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The CGE model of the Academy of Social Sciences was developed earlier, and is currently innovating the content of the SAM table, model equations and model perspectives. Recently, the research team is exploring the combination of CGE model and Chinese household micro-survey data in order to better simulate the social operation mechanism.
Researcher Yang Cuihong from the Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences introduced the world input-output model developed by the research team to reflect trade heterogeneity. By distinguishing the heterogeneity of trade, the team separately characterizes the high consumption and high input of processing trade on imported goods, forming a DPN model. In the future, the team will further embed China's DPN model into the international input-output table to analyze the carbon flow generated by the international trade process.
Dr. Duan Hongbo from the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences introduced at the forum on behalf of the energy, environment and economic model team of the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. The team mainly develops a model driven by endogenous technology, focusing on describing the evolution of multiple energy technologies and the mechanism of endogenous technology learning, and applies the model to the field of new energy power development in my country.
Dr. Feng Shenghao from University of International Business and Economics made an introduction on behalf of the CoPS Center team of University of International Business and Economics. The CoPS Center focuses on the construction of the CGE model database, which is widely used in energy and climate change policies, as well as in agriculture, population, trade and other policy fields. The team is currently conducting a detailed exploration of the different nesting modes of K, L, and E, and believes that the nesting form of KL-E is more in line with Chinese reality than KE-L.
In the questioning session, the participating scholars conducted further discussions on the debugging, improvement, and update of the model, how to calibrate the links between models based on different systems, how to improve the quality of statistical data, or how to proofread the basic data of the model to the greatest extent. Intense discussions were held on issues such as accurately describing the development of the industry, as well as technological updates and substitutions in the industry, what is a reasonable model "scenario", and how to set up a scenario to support research and analysis.
At the end of the meeting, the two moderators respectively made a summary of the forum. Teacher Li Shantong first recognized the opportunities for mutual understanding and communication provided by the China Energy Modeling Forum to various research teams. Actively recommend key topics as the topic of the next special session; I also look forward to the enthusiasm of the forum member team to continue the academic discussion and benefit better from the model forum
Teacher Hu Xiulian spoke highly of this forum. She pointed out that the team report of this forum fits the theme of the forum on macroeconomic development, showing the research trend of both application and development, and also demonstrating the researchers' full knowledge of this field. Enthusiasm; the platform provided by this forum is of great significance, which can provide impetus and support for the promotion of domestic research on the 2050 low-emission strategy, and encourage more teams to participate in the work on this topic. She told the researchers present Dao, models are tools, and model talents are the key. I hope that all model people can maintain a love, endure loneliness, and always have communication, an open mind, and a tenacious will, , and devote themselves to model development and application wor
Group photo of some participants
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