Energy transition is an important measure to mitigate climate change. The IPCC Working Group II report "Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability" clearly indicates that the significant threat posed by climate change to critical infrastructure, including energy, is one of the important risks that human society will face.
The "Low-Carbon, Resilient, and Inclusive Development of Energy Transition" report was publicly released online during the "Zero Carbon Think Tank Series Forum III." Ms. Qiu Ying, the project director of the Beautiful China project at the China Energy Model Forum, provided an on-site interpretation of the report.
Ms. Qiu Ying, Project Director of CEMF, interpreting the report on-site
"Carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption are the main source of greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, developing and establishing a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy system has become an important strategy and current trend for promoting global sustainable development," stated He Jiankun, Director of the National Expert Committee on Climate Change and Chairman of the China Energy Model Forum (CEMF) Academic Committee, at the launch event. Wu Mouyuan, Deputy Director of the Economic and Technological Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation and a strategic research expert, summarized China's path to low-carbon energy transformation with the four words: 'Carbon Reduction, Carbon Utilization, Carbon Replacement, Carbon Sequestration.' Under the 'Dual Carbon' goal, the main strategies for achieving low-carbon transformation include:
Research conducted by the CEMF team on pathways to carbon neutrality shows that driving energy transition through a combination of policies that promote the substitution of high-intensity electricity, the development of renewable energy, and improvements in energy efficiency can help China achieve its macroeconomic development goals. Overall, the economic cost of achieving carbon neutrality shows a small initial fluctuation but a larger fluctuation in the later stages. Therefore, achieving peak emissions and deep emission reductions with high efficiency, speed, and quality will reduce the cost and difficulty of achieving the long-term goal of carbon neutrality.
An energy system with resilience should be able to anticipate risks and respond accordingly, rapidly adapt to disturbances, recover quickly, and adapt to future risk patterns. Building a resilient development framework for energy transition is crucial. The CEMF research shows that extreme weather increases the demand for flexible power sources in the electricity system. Enhancing the power system's resilience can be achieved through diversified power supply structures, including traditional fossil fuels.
Strengthening the resilience of the power system is the key to realizing the resilient development of the energy transition. CEMF research shows that extreme weather increases the demand for flexible power sources in power systems. The realization of diversified power supply structures such as traditional thermal power generation, renewable energy power generation and other energy power generation, centralized, distributed and mobile multi-type power supply modes, and the application of energy storage technology can strengthen the resilience of the power system. Before energy storage technology can be applied on a large scale, the role of thermal power guarantee is indispensable. In addition, to strengthen the resilience of the power system, it is also necessary to build a large-scale power transmission system to support cross-regional power transmission.
It is worth noting that energy transition is a matter of national importance and people's livelihoods, involving a complex array of stakeholders. This includes different levels of government in various regions, all companies along the energy industry value chain, employees working in the energy sector, and the vast population relying on energy production for their livelihoods. These stakeholders may have entirely different demands and interests regarding economic benefits, social development, and ecological conservation. Therefore, based on their own interests, the impacts they face, and their positions, these stakeholders may make different choices during the energy transition process, thereby influencing the progress and outcomes of the energy transition. Only by achieving inclusive development in energy transition can we balance the interests and demands of different stakeholders, eliminate potential adverse effects resulting from unequal distribution, and reduce resistance to the energy transition. According to Li Junfeng, 'Inclusiveness is crucial. Without inclusiveness, there can be no cooperation. Cooperative inclusiveness is the key to the success of global energy transition and also the key to the success of China's energy transition.'
The coordinated development of low-carbon, resilience, and inclusiveness needs to be implemented as soon as possible.
Many local governments have recognized the importance of resilience and inclusiveness in energy transition and have been actively promoting it. Beijing Municipality issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion of Resilient City Construction" in November 2021. Over the years, Shanxi Province has been implementing the concept of inclusive development in addressing the reemployment of laid-off workers in the coal and steel industries. Data shows that in 2016, the capacity reduction in Shanxi's coal and steel industries involved 25 coal mines and 1 steel company, requiring the resettlement of 31,662 employees.
The aforementioned practical cases reflect the initial stages of resilience and inclusive development, laying the foundation for accelerating the coordinated development of low-carbon, resilience, and inclusiveness in energy transition. To further promote this synergy, the report suggests that relevant decision-making departments and supporting institutions should promptly undertake the following tasks:
• Improve social protection policies and long-term guarantee mechanisms, increase policy and financial support to vulnerable groups, and explore forms of broad participation from relevant stakeholders to promote successful practices as quickly as possible；
Ensuring resilience and inclusive development is of great significance in the energy transition process. According to He Jianku, we can achieve the coordinated and sustainable development of the economy, society, energy, and environment by strengthening technological innovation and promoting energy transition. This will promote the construction of a global ecological civilization, foster the building of a community with a shared future for humanity, and achieve harmonious development between humans and nature. He emphasized the importance of adapting to and leading the global trend and tide of the energy transition, making China's contribution to the construction of a global ecological civilization.
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