Home > Publications > Expert Opinion
He Jiankun
Jan 14, 2016

The just-concluded Paris Climate Conference adopted the "Paris Agreement," which established the institutional framework for a global response to climate change based on the principles of the UNFCCC. It has become another new starting point and milestone for the global response to climate change after the "Kyoto Protocol."

1. Continue to promote the implementation of the "Paris Agreement" with my country's new concept of global governance
 
The new climate mechanism established by the "Paris Agreement" has three main points: the first is to establish the long-term goal of the global response to climate change, that is, to control the global average temperature rise within 2°C before the industrial revolution, and strive to control it within 1.5°C. To this end, global greenhouse gas emissions must reach their peak as soon as possible, and by the second half of this century, a balance between anthropogenic emissions from sources and removals from sinks will be achieved. That is, net zero emissions of greenhouse gases will be achieved.
 
Second, long-term global goals are realized based on the voluntary actions of Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). At the same time, the transparency of national actions and support should be strengthened. Starting in 2023, a global inventory or summary will be conducted every five years. To assess collective progress towards the agreement's purpose and long-term goals, to inform all parties, to facilitate renewal and strengthening of national action and support, and to strengthen international cooperation on climate action.
 
Third, distinguish the different historical responsibilities and obligations of developed and developing countries, embody the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities," and embody this principle in various elements such as mitigation, adaptation, capital, technology, capacity building, and transparency middle. On the issue of mitigation, the agreement clarifies that developed countries will continue to take the lead in striving to achieve absolute economy-wide emission reduction targets while developing countries will continue to strengthen their emission reduction efforts and encourage them to gradually achieve economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets based on different national conditions. On financial issues, the agreement stipulates that developed countries should provide financial resources to assist developing countries in mitigation and adaptation to fulfill their existing obligations under the Convention and encourages other countries to provide such support on a voluntary basis.
 
The new international institutional framework established by the "Paris Agreement" is a voluntary and conscious cooperative action of all countries under the premise of climate justice. On the one hand, it embodies the world's unprecedented consensus and common political will that "climate change poses an urgent and possibly irreversible threat to human society and the earth." On the other hand, the design of the mechanism reflects the establishment of ambitious goals and action plans that encourage countries to "bottom-up" rather than the "top-down" mandatory allocation of responsibilities and obligations, which reflects the shift from "zero-sum game" to " A change in the thinking of "Game of the Republic." The new institutional framework also aims to promote the low-carbon transformation of the economies of various countries, promote the coordination and unity of addressing climate change and equitable access to sustainable development and poverty eradication, and achieve a win-win situation of "development" and "carbon reduction." and climate change actions to promote win-win cooperation among countries.
 
China has made extremely important contributions to the conclusion of the Paris Agreement. Before the meeting, the Sino-US and Sino-French joint statements on climate change had reached a consensus on the core and focus issues in the negotiations, which eventually became the basis for the consensus of all parties in the Paris Agreement. In his speech at the opening ceremony of the conference, President Xi Jinping not only put forward new ideas on the climate system but also on the global governance model, that is, to create "three futures," "to create a future where everyone does their best and win-win cooperation," "to create a future of rule of law, fairness and justice” and “creating a future of inclusiveness, mutual learning, and common development.” China's active promotion of the success of the Paris Conference is a successful example of China's in-depth participation in international governance under the guidance of President Xi's concept of global governance. It will also become my country's basic theory and guiding ideology to promote the implementation of the follow-up actions of the "Paris Agreement."
 
The "Paris Agreement" made institutional arrangements for global action on climate change and also proposed a series of new concepts, new mechanisms, and new processes, all of which need to be resolved in the follow-up negotiations starting in 2016. At present, all parties are strengthening their interpretation of the relevant provisions of the agreement, evaluating their possible impact, risks, and effects, and studying new negotiating positions and implementation countermeasures. The "Paris Agreement" is a product of balancing the basic positions and interests of all parties and showing constructiveness and flexibility to each other, and generally promotes the global process of addressing climate change. However, there are still big differences between the parties regarding the understanding and interpretation of the relevant clauses in the agreement and the details of implementation actions. At present, my country needs to organize forces to carry out comprehensive and forward-looking research on issues related to the "Paris Agreement" on the global 1.5°C temperature rise target, national INDC targets and global inventory, capital technology and transparency, and study the position and perspective of future implementation of the agreement negotiations. strategy, continue to play an active leading role in global climate governance, demonstrate my country’s responsibility as a major country for the common development of all mankind, and learn from my country’s practice and experience in deeply participating in global climate governance to explore and develop President Xi Jinping’s proposal to promote global governance new ideas and new models.
 
2. Accelerate the low-carbon transformation of the domestic energy revolution and economic development
 
Before the Paris Conference, my country proposed positive and ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC), including reducing the CO2 intensity per unit of GDP by 60-65% compared with 2005 in 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy reaching about 20%, and CO2 emissions around 2030. Reaching the peak and other INDC goals is not only in line with my country's national conditions and characteristics of the development stage but also demonstrates positive actions that have made great efforts. my country is in the stage of rapid industrialization and urbanization, and energy demand and CO2 emissions will still increase reasonably within a certain period of time. To achieve a coordinated win-win situation between "development" and "carbon reduction," the key is to increase the output benefits per unit of energy consumption and unit of carbon emissions, that is, to significantly reduce the CO2 intensity per unit of GDP. Therefore, my country's CO2 emission "intensity" reduction target per unit of GDP differs from the "total" reduction target of greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries. However, from the perspective of emission reduction efforts, my country's CO2 intensity per unit of GDP will decrease by more than 4% per year in the future. Although developed countries have reduced their total emissions in absolute terms, due to their slow GDP growth, the carbon intensity converted into units of GDP will decline. The speed is basically less than 4%, which is lower than the decline in our country.
 
Our country puts forward the goal of peaking the total amount of CO2 emissions around 2030, which means that while strengthening the goal of reducing the "intensity," it is necessary to further implement the dual control mechanism of "total amount." After the peak of CO2 emissions is achieved, further implementation and development of National similar total emissions reduction targets. Achieving the peak of CO2 emissions is an important turning point in the green and low-carbon transformation of my country's economic development model, which means that economic growth will no longer depend on the increase in fossil energy supply but will be completely decoupled from it. At the same time as the CO2 emissions peak, it also means a fundamental change in severe domestic resource and environmental constraints, which is of milestone significance for coping with global climate change and domestic sustainable development.
 
After CO2 peaks around 2030, energy demand will continue to increase while the economy continues to grow, but the growth in total energy demand will be met by increasing the supply of new energy and renewable energy. Therefore, achieving the goal of achieving a non-fossil energy ratio of about 20% by 2030 is an important support for peaking CO2 emissions. According to estimates, the installed capacity of non-fossil energy will reach about 1.3 billion kilowatts in 2030, which is equivalent to the total installed capacity of power generation in my country, and it still needs to continue to grow at an average annual rate of 6-8%. At that time, 20 million kilowatts of wind power and 20 million kilowatts of solar power will be built each year, and the installed capacity of nuclear power will be about 10 million kilowatts. Their development speed and scale are far beyond the reach of developed countries.
 
To achieve the long-term global goals set out in the Paris Agreement, all countries need to continuously strengthen their efforts. Under the current INDC of various countries, the total global greenhouse gas emissions will reach 55 billion tons by 2030, which will not reach the emission scenario range of 40 billion tons to achieve the 2°C temperature rise target. All countries need to update and strengthen INDC on the basis of regular global collective stocktaking. As the largest developing country, our country's future emission reduction path is widely concerned by the world. Our country must also follow the trend of low-carbon development in the world and continuously strengthen its actions. Get ready to take the initiative to adapt to updated and enhanced INDC goals in countries around the world. At present, in the process of building a community with a shared future for mankind and in the process of voluntary cooperation to protect the earth's ecology and human survival and development, only positive actions and contributions can have the right to speak and play a guiding role in the new global governance.
 
To achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement to control temperature rise by 2°C, the world must achieve net-zero emissions by the second half of this century, which means that by 2050, a near-zero-emission energy source supported by new energy and renewable energy must be formed as soon as possible. system to replace the current high-carbon energy system based on fossil energy. This will accelerate the pace of global energy transformation and economic low-carbon transformation. Advanced low-carbon energy technology innovation and industrialization development will become a high-tech field in the world's economic and technological competition, and will also become a new economic growth point and new employment opportunities, and become the embodiment of a country's core competitiveness. my country's energy revolution and economic low-carbon transition will become more urgent, and it will also face severe challenges and opportunities for leapfrog development. The Paris Conference requires countries to submit long-term low-emission development strategies for greenhouse gases in the middle of this century by 2020 so as to work together to achieve long-term global goals. In the process of my country's current research and formulation of medium- and long-term energy revolution strategies, it is necessary to reflect on the requirements of the "Paris Agreement," accelerate the process of the energy revolution and make China's contribution to protecting the ecological security of the earth and promoting the sustainable development of all mankind.