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Home > Publications > Expert Opinion
Hu Angang
Dec 11, 2015
Professor Hu Angang delivered a speech
 
Not only to build a resource-saving and environment-friendly society but also to build a disaster prevention and mitigation society
 
I would like to talk about the topic of green development in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" and its impact on other topics. I am an expert member of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan," "Twelfth Five-Year Plan," and the current "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan." I have been following up on the discussion on climate change, and today I participated in this forum and checked the road map for China on climate change that we proposed in 2009. That is more radical. The main reason is that the World Bank published Climate Change and Development in the same year. One of the core points put forward in it is that the shorter the peak delay, the higher the peak will be, and the loss in the future may be very large. In fact, from the perspective of opportunity cost, this is very beneficial, so at that time, a discussion was made for the formulation of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" and for the Copenhagen Conference. In the beginning, Brookings was mainly invited to discuss whether China and the United States can carry out green cooperation, green energy, and green development and then reach a better consensus at the Global Climate Change Conference. This is also a window of opportunity. At that time, Obama had already been elected president, and they also provided some ideas for President Obama. I also made a response myself, thinking that it should be feasible. Then we proposed for the first time on climate change how to eliminate climate poverty by addressing climate change. China is the country most affected by various natural disasters in the world, especially climate disasters. It has had a population of 400 million for a long time but has only recently dropped below 300 million. How to combine it with social and economic development? Our previous three steps are generally not to exceed 8 billion tons of carbon emissions at the peak, but now it has exceeded 9 billion tons, which is about 10 billion tons; the second hope is to pass " The 12th Five-Year Plan and the 13th Five-Year Plan, and even the 14th Five-Year Plan will reach its peak in 2020. This is the 2009 plan. But I think a lot of that opportunity has passed in some way.
 
We have also done some detailed research on how to discuss the "13th Five-Year Plan" now, and today we specially brought the book "The 13th Five-Year Strategy". Our study puts more emphasis on comprehensiveness. In the remaining five years of the "13th Five-Year Plan", how can we not only achieve the core goal of building a well-off society in an all-around way but also consider how to build a resource-saving and environment-friendly society? To build a disaster prevention and mitigation society. Just now, I mentioned that about 300 to 400 million people in the country are affected by climate disasters. How to reduce the two losses of natural disasters. The first is direct economic losses. It has been clearly proposed since the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" and "Twelfth Five-Year Plan." Two core indicators, one is that the ratio of direct losses to GDP has dropped to 1.5%, and now it has dropped to 1%, which is what we want. The second is that the number of people lost due to natural disasters, especially the number of deaths, will drop significantly. Now there seems to be new progress, especially in the 12th Five-Year Plan, where the number of people is less than 2,000. This will also increase our life expectancy. Third, we considered building a climate-adaptive society at that time, so we changed from a two-type society to a four-type society, which is considered a disaster prevention and reduction type society and an adaptive society. This is to consider the construction of ecological civilization from a broad framework, so the significance of this topic is not simply disaster reduction or emission reduction but is closely related to our harmonious development of society. Because China is the most populous country in the world, no matter what kind of subtraction is made, whether it is reducing pollution or reducing carbon dioxide emissions, etc., a small innovation may lead to a scale effect, so I think it is very useful to use China as an experiment meaningful.
 
The "new normal" of the economy provides a good macroeconomic environment for the formulation of the "13th Five-Year" green development plan
 
The core word of the five major developments proposed by the central government this time is green development, and the fifth major goal is the overall improvement of the quality of the ecological environment. We actually mentioned a few years ago that the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is China's first step, or the first green development plan, to establish a resource-based and environment-friendly society. It should be said that the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" highlights the green goals. The 12th Five-Year Plan has a total of 24 quantitative indicators, but in essence, there are 29 quantitative indicators, including 4 indicators for the reduction of major pollutants and two indicators for forest growth, including the index of forest coverage, Plus an indicator of forest stock volume. In fact, among the 29 indicators, the green indicators actually accounted for 48%. If the 24 indicators accounted for one-third, it has far exceeded the economic indicators. Among them, there are only 3 economic indicators, and all of them are expected indicators, while most of all green indicators are binding indicators. Therefore, compared with the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" has a relatively large impact. It has become a development plan based on binding indicators or called a green development plan. It is On this basis, that China has entered the "new normal" of the economy. A direct result is that it provides a good macroeconomic environment for the formulation of the "13th Five-Year Plan", especially the green development plan. We have also done professional research. You can compare that during the "Ninth Five-Year Plan" period, from 1996 to 2000, when we caught up with the Asian financial crisis, our economic growth rate dropped by an average of 8.6%. At that time, all energy-saving and emission-reduction indicators were achieved. As for the measures we took, those measures were not the most important. As long as the economic growth rate reaches 8.6%, the demand will definitely decline. The absolute number of carbon emissions was also proposed for the first time. No one expected that during the period of the Tenth Five-Year Plan and the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, economic growth would reach double digits again, leading to a sharp increase in ecological costs. Fortunately, the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" completed the main indicators of energy conservation and emission reduction, and all our green indicators during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period can be completed.
 
How to realize the green development of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan"
 
Considering that the "13th Five-Year Plan" is the second step of the green development plan, I would like to talk about some of my understanding in several aspects.
 
First, energy consumption is controlled with regard to energy consumption. Everyone knows that we reached 4.26 billion tons of standard coal last year, which has actually exceeded the 4 billion tons planning goal set by the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan." From an international comparison, China’s primary energy consumption is actually 1.3 times that of the United States, much higher than China’s 23% of the world’s total and much higher than the 13.3% of GDP calculated by the exchange rate method. The PPP method is 16.6%, so a core fatal fatal core problem in China now is that our energy efficiency is still significantly lower than the world average. If calculated according to this method, it is roughly equivalent to 60%-70% of the world average. So we are also considering what measures to take during the 13th Five-Year Plan. From an international perspective, look at how our energy efficiency has increased from 60%-70% to 70%-80%, or even 90% from a national perspective; if you look at it from an industry perspective, for example, what kind of energy efficiency is the steel industry level, including agriculture, so it is very meaningful for us to understand this problem.
 
Let’s look at China’s coal again. According to BP’s data, China’s coal consumption has actually accounted for more than 50% of the world’s total coal consumption because our population has dropped to 19% of the world’s total, so there is no reason to say more We continue to develop coal. Of course, we hope that coal will be clean, which is related to our economic growth mode. Looking at it now, when we were considering the "Tenth Five-Year Plan," we asked whether the proportion of coal consumption could be significantly reduced during the "Ninth Five-Year Plan" and could be reduced to below 60% in the "Tenth Five-Year Plan." It will drop 60% below in 2020. This is very relevant to the way we develop. Correspondingly, it is nothing more than walking on two legs. The first is whether coal can be made cleaner because it is still a dirty energy after all, accounting for 85% of our total sulfur dioxide and 67% of nitrogen oxides. This is the source. A big problem. Therefore, we have to be green, clean, and electrified, and we must also consider whether we can use some technical routes in the future to make more and more effective use of our current power generation capacity. The other leg must be the development of non-fossil energy. From the current point of view, no matter whether the "12th Five-Year Plan" proposes non-fossil energy or the "13th Five-Year Plan" further strengthens non-fossil energy, I very much hope that these experts present will Include especially young experts who can make some better suggestions. How to enable China to create and apply this rare new green energy revolution opportunity, and how to effectively finance, including energy infrastructure. Moreover, China is now number one in the world in terms of UHV and has already developed several, giving which also gives us a greater opportunity opportunities.
 
Second, the most important element is water resources. Now the total water consumption has reached 620 billion cubic meters, of which agricultural water consumption has reached 63%. It should be said that it is still relatively low in developing countries but still small compared to developed countries. So how can we effectively control agricultural water consumption, realize the growth of agricultural products and agricultural added value, but start to decouple from water consumption; the second decoupling is the decoupling of industrial water consumption and industrial added value. If effective industrial water consumption is used, it will be significantly improved. Price, called factor price, is completely possible. Now many of our industries, including the iron and steel industry, have a very high ability to reuse water, which is considered a high level in the world globally. Therefore, we hope that the two major users, the largest user, is are agriculture, and the second largest user is industry. The total water consumption During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period reached a peak peaked and decreased, and it was supplemented by other water use.
 
Third, reducing the total amount of land for construction is proposed. Objectively speaking, this matter has been done too late, and it should start from the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan." It can be seen that since 2005, the total amount of cultivated land in China has not decreased, but the construction land has increased significantly. Moreover, there has been a new trend of land urbanization faster than population urbanization without a corresponding increase in urban population. In this sense, the country still lacks macro-control in these areas, and the "13th Five-Year Plan" has clearly proposed the content in this area.
 
Fourth, how to effectively control carbon emissions. The agreement reached by President Xi Jinping and Obama will reach its peak around 2030. We hope to propose more professional, practical, or targeted research using different methods and models to target the same goal. That is, under what kind of scenarios, strategies, and measures can China reach the its peak as soon as possible, ? Not only technical feasibility, and economic feasibility, but also political feasibility should be emphasized. The Chinese system has this characteristic. As long as it is used as a binding indicator, the overall trend will not change. For example, when we talk about the discharge of major pollutants, after several five-year plans, the statistical system has been improved, and some key progress has also been made. So what kind of method is effective? It seems that The most important thing is that the economic growth rate should say goodbye to the trend of more than 10%. That is to say, the bottom line of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" has been proposed to be 6.5%. This is achievable. GDP has doubled relative to 2010, and residents' income is more likely to double.
 
Therefore, as long as it is kept at around 7%, the consumption elasticity of both energy and carbon emissions will decrease. For example, carbon emissions dropped to 2.3% in 2010, increased by 2.7% in 2013, and dropped to 0.9% last year. This year will definitely be a negative growth. Of course, it is not sure whether the negative growth will continue is still being determined. Therefore, as long as it is kept at around 7%, China's rapid growth and large-scale growth will come down, so how to turn this fast train into a slow train and then enter the stage of absolute emission reduction. Assuming that we can take further measures during the "13th Five-Year Plan", even if we can achieve a growth rate of 1%, it will be a great achievement. Of course, other industries are just an opportunity to exit for many of our energy industries. I call it the second sweep. The first sweep was in 1998. This was the first clean-up of overcapacity. The entire industrial structure or technological capabilities have improved. In fact, it also depends on the market. You just need to protect it; I can't go down. So from this point of view, we think it is very conditional and capable and will reach its peak around 2025. This will not only enable us to make more important contributions internationally, the key is to level off this peak, and the level and cost of control are completely different.
 
Therefore, although this plan has not been fully announced, the central government’s proposals have been put forward. The state strongly supports the optimization of development zones and takes the lead in achieving the peak carbon emission target. According to this logic, at least three major urban agglomerations must be brought up, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and other optimized development zones. And we also encourage these cities to put forward, and we also hope that the experts here can do some work on optimizing the development zone. I myself proposed a basic plan in 2009. According to the SDI indicator, whoever has entered the so-called high human development or extremely high human development has to reduce emissions. If you adopt this method, it is not a national emission reduction. Objectively speaking, Xinjiang is currently in a high-speed development process, and its carbon emissions are also quite high, but it is difficult to completely reduce its emissions now, so I think it is still necessary to seek truth from facts. This is our understanding of this issue. a suggestion. If we assume that around 2025 is the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the country as a whole has entered into absolute emission reduction, at least one-third of China’s regions must be able to reduce emissions at the peak of the “13th Five-Year Plan”. Therefore, China should know that the more developed the region, the more mandatory it is to do these things. We especially hope to have the support of some scientific research.
 
Objectively speaking, the proportion of all service industries in these places is rapidly increasing, which provides conditions for our subsequent emission reduction. In addition, these areas first emphasized the optimization of energy structure. It was very clear when designing the optimization of the main functional site at that time. For example, whether Beijing can become China's smoke-free and coal-free capital, all measures are being taken now. Of course, this also involves prices and other issues, which I will not discuss further.
 
Finally, the total amount of pollutants has been greatly reduced, which is clearly stated this time. Since the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” proposed two major pollutants and the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” four, we are now also considering whether to increase the number to six to eight and continue to control the total amount. Objectively speaking, it will not work even if it drops now because the scale of chemical oxygen demand or sulfur dioxide is too large at 20 million tons. It is impossible to change the air quality, so a large reduction is needed. We have also seen that Minister Chen has raised this proposition.
 
In addition, it is indeed necessary to propose environmental quality as a core task. Now the country has adopted three major campaigns, first with ten measures for air, ten for water, and ten for soil in the future. The National Science Council has discussed this issue in the past two days. This seems the most difficult, but some core goals can still be raised anyway. By 2020, the trend of aggravating soil pollution across the country will be curbed. Of course, this is a long time. In this regard, I think the biggest shortcoming of China's basic national conditions is the ecological environment and resources issue. This has been the case since we jointly formulated the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" ten years ago, including the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan." The more prominent, from the perspective of the mechanism, is precisely the best opportunity for China's development. Whether it is an energy-saving industry or environmental protection industry, it will be an emerging industry in China in the future. We can look at the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and estimate that the national environmental protection industry investment is 3.4 trillion, which is less than 4 trillion, but it may be 10 trillion in the "13th Five-Year Plan". The same is true for energy conservation. We hope to be able to turn bad things into good things in this regard and develop a new industry.
 
Make new contributions to global ecological security
 
The latter involves the main functional area, especially the ecological barrier. The most important thing is that this central proposal puts forward a very clear goal: to make new contributions to global ecological security. What new contributions can China make in the future "13th Five-Year Plan" and "14th Five-Year Plan"? Please don't underestimate this sentence, and it is not easy to write this sentence. Because we put forward this idea in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" and "Twelfth Five-Year Plan." Now that this document has been officially written, we have to answer what kind of policies China will adopt that will benefit itself and the world, whether clean energy or controlling carbon emissions. Therefore, China can now do more professional research and analysis that impacts the world.