The just-concluded Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China deliberated and approved the "Suggestions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development." As a research institution, the Environmental Planning Institute of the Ministry of Environmental Protection assists governmen departments, especially The Ministry of Environmental Protection has formulated major plans related to environmental protection in the Outline of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China (hereinafter referred to as the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan"). Since the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" has not yet been officially released, the content of this speech is for your reference only. Today I will talk about four main points with you:
Overall Judgment on the Environmental and Economic Situation
From the analysis of the data to see the overall environmental and economic situation, since 2006, my country's total GDP has continued to rise, but the EPI has dropped from 56 points to 43 points. The overall environmental performance ranking has also declined, and the relative difference has continued to widen. Although there are many debates about the EPI indicator, including the selection of indicators, the selection of weights, etc., I personally think that, overall, this indicator still has great reference value. Therefore, the "Environmental Performance Index (EPI) Report" will be released at each World Economic Forum (WEF) held in Davos, and we will also report this report, which leaders attach great importance to. Among the five major system constructions, the construction of ecological civilization, represented by environmental protection, ranks last. We can see that this indicator is work-related rather than performance-based, so there is much moisture. But these two indicators have confirmed that my country's environmental problems are very serious.
Specifically, water pollution is the most serious environmental pollution problem in China. From a policy perspective, the country first made an action plan on air pollution. But I personally think that water pollution is the most serious. Regarding urban river water bodies, the "Water Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan" (hereinafter referred to as "Water Ten Measures") issued by the State Council this time they have particularly emphasized the problem of "urban black and odorous water" treatment. The entire water pollution problem is also referred to as COD (chemical oxygen demand) as a representative. It has risen from several million tons in the 1980s to 30 million tons now. The figure will be even greater if the amount of agricultural pollutants is included. On the whole, the surface water quality of major rivers is pretty good. According to official statistics, the current water quality is better than that in the early 1980s. Many people, including me,do not believe this data because these statistics ignore the tributaries of many rivers, urban water bodies, etc., but only the data of the country's key watersheds, the cross-sections of major rivers, and the cut-off data, so although This data is less representative, but looks good.
Regarding the atmosphere, sulfur dioxide emissions have shown a downward trend since the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" and are now about 20 million tons. Everyone also expressed doubts about this figure because according to the official coal consumption (4 billion tons) compared with the United States, and then considering my country's desulfurization quantity and statistical data, it can be seen that the decline in this trend is more suspicious.
Let's make a comparison between China and the United States in terms of air pollution emissions. We compared the sulfur dioxide emission intensity of North China (200,000 square kilometers near Beijing and Tianjin) with two regions of the United States (one region in the east and one in the west, with similar areas), and the result is that we are more than 200 times that of the west of the United States. Pollutants are 9 times, 10 times and 27 times. Therefore, according to these emission intensities, air pollution must appear. For air pollution emissions, China has an indicator: the visibility of the air. When we came to Tsinghua to study, we could see Xishan very clearly, but now it is very difficult to see. Observation data from the National Meteorological Administration shows that the visibility in my country has dropped by an average of 10km since the 1960s. The air quality of cities has reached the standard. In 2014, the air quality of 16 cities was up to the standard. Therefore, regarding the prevention and control of air pollution, our task is still very arduous.
Regarding soil pollution, the data we have used in the past ten years shows that the proportion of soil pollution monitoring points exceeding the standard is about 8%. The announcement of the new data is now subject to the approval of the Prime Minister, and the proportion of the announced exceeding the standard has increased by 8 percentage points, reaching 16%. Although we are unsure how representative this data is, the rise from 8% to 16% is also a big change.
The Ministry of Environmental Protection and the Chinese Academy of Sciences jointly completed a ten-year assessment of my country's polity ecosystem changes from 2000 to 2010. However, different units, departments, and experts have great disputes over this evaluation result. Generally speaking, the main controversial issues are: From the perspective of the ecosystem, due to the implementation of the policy of returning farmland to the forest since 1998, the forest vegetation coverage in my country overall increased, but from the perspective of the function of the ecosystem, it is declining. This is actually the relationship between quantity and quality. The increase in quantity does not necessarily increase the function. One of the simplest examples is that there is a big difference in ecological service functions between natural forests and plantation forests.
The problem of overexploitation of groundwater used to be serious in the northern regions of my country, but now it has gradually spread to the southern regions, and the pollution of coastal waters is also very serious. The most polluted areas are the most economically developed areas, such as Hangzhou Bay, which is generally unimaginable to everyone. Why is Hangzhou Bay so polluted? Because this is the most intensive place for the chemical industry. The next most polluted area is Bohai Bay. When I, as the team leader, took the lead in working on the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Regional Collaborative Development Ecological and Environmental Protection Plan," I got a set of research data that shocked me: around 2000 in Tianjin around the Bohai Sea, the increase (magnitude) of seawater inferior to Category 4 It was 0.6%, now it is 70%.
All of these pollution problems can have adverse health effects. This number is the health influence of the United States, which comes from research done by five or six hundred experts around the world. In the report, a classification of the health impact of air pollution was made, dividing China and North Korea into North Asia. North Korea has less pollution. In fact, the pollution in North Asia mainly refers to China. Two figures illustrate the problem: the health effects of outdoor pollution, which causes premature deaths, and indoor pollution, which also causes around a million premature deaths.
Another problem brought about by environmental pollution is the problem of social stability. International conflicts caused by environmental pollution are also important to world problems. My country also lists ecological issues as the most important factor in the country's non-traditional fields, and two of the 11 safety issues listed in my country are related to environmental protection.
Global environmental pressures in the future
There is a simple equation in the textbook on environmental pressure. The simple expression is: environmental pollution load I = population T * per capita GDP (A) * pollutant P produced by unit GDP. From this equation, we can see that environmental pollution is closely related to social development, population growth, and urbanization level, and is also closely related to our development stage. It is also closely related to per capita GDP, energy consumed per unit of GDP, and pollution emissions. Therefore, environmental issues are by no means simple technical issues, but social, political, and economic issues. From this point of view, the first pressure of the environment is the pressure of population growth, that is, the pressure of food. Now that the population policy has been liberalized, this may have a small impact on the environment: the early population policy was aimed at the situation of few resources and insufficient food, and later the pressure on the environment was too great. Population flows from rural areas to cities, and its ecological footprint and carbon footprint have increased significantly, and the pressure it brings is the marginal environmental load. The second pressure is the pressure of economic growth, which can be divided into two parts: one part is our own consumption, and the other part is our export. This aspect of consumption also puts a lot of pressure on our environment. The third pressure is the pressure of climate change. China has been talking about "response" to climate change rather than "control." Overall, the pressures on climate change are a combination of old and new issues. When cooperating with developed countries, we found that developed countries think that the current climate warming is our business, but in fact, we and developed countries should work together to deal with climate change.
Prediction of major environmental issues in the future
First, a large-scale environmental public health crisis may erupt, especially health problems caused by air pollution, which have a certain incubation period, and the impact will be ten years later.
Second, the normalization of trans-regional and super-regional smog and water pollution. When the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (hereinafter referred to as "CCICED") was held last year, the sky in Beijing was very blue. However, in September and October of this year, not only the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region but also many areas, including the Central Plains and Northeast China, experienced continuous severe smog.
Third, new problems arise from the combination of soil, groundwater, and genetic modification. This is a very real problem, but the veil of the problem has not been lifted.
Fourth, safety accidents of magma-type theoretical water sources have entered a period of frequent occurrence, and many chemical plants are located in magma-distributed areas. This problem is now more serious in the south.
Fifth, motor vehicles and agricultural non-point source pollution have become the main air and water pollution sources. These problems have been fully exposed in big cities. The problem of agricultural non-point source pollution in the Yangtze and Pearl rivers is now difficult to solve.
Sixth, climate change and resource exploitation have exacerbated the degradation of ecosystems, and these two changes are mutually reinforcing.
Seventh, carbon dioxide and mercury emissions. This has now been realized. my country has committed to and implemented the total control of carbon dioxide and mercury emissions and signed an international agreement on mercury emissions. We are the largest country in mercury emissions, and controlling mercury emissions can better protect our health.
Eighth, environmental conflicts with neighboring countries, such as the South China Sea issue.
Ninth, citizen environmental movements, and ecological political crises occur frequently. The processes and mechanisms behind environmental incidents in many places are very complex.
Finally (tenth), the uncertainty of the current ecological environment management system reform. On the surface, environmental protection departments have vertical management below the provincial level and centralized environmental monitoring and supervision enforcement. However, these plans are not mentioned in the "Overall Plan for the Reform of the Ecological Civilization System." Therefore, a large game is hidden in it, which is the uncertainty brought about by the game.
As the largest developing country, how big is the difference between my country and developed countries? It is often said that they are "facing the 13th Five-Year Plan", so 2015 and 2020 are two-time nodes. Considering the similarity of development stages, I think that by 2020, my country's per capita GDP will be roughly the same as that of developed countries such as the United States in the same year. Minister Chen Jining mentioned this issue in his reports or speeches, including the first press conference. We have to bear with it a little bit. Changes are gradual.
Reflections on the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan"
The first is about goals and indicators. The "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan Proposal" mentioned binding indicators, which are relatively vague and highly controversial. In my opinion, the overall goals of comparative science should include the following: First, the core is the environmental quality index. The second is to extend some indicators related to public health or the environment and people's livelihood from the environmental quality indicators. We often say that the improvement of the environment is for public health, and it is reflected here. The third is that relevant indicators are also needed in the field of ecological protection. The fourth is total control. The fifth is global environmental protection. With regard to environmental quality goals, the previous approach was top-down: the central government set goals, and each province implemented them. I personally suggest changing to a bottom-up approach: each prefecture-level city sets its own goals, and the central government directly manages them. Each prefecture-level city decides according to its own economic strength and management level. The first square is the one that has already reached the standard. For example, if 16 cities have reached the air quality standard, we will set up a benchmark city, and everyone will continue to improve according to the method of the benchmark city; For example, some cities in the Pearl River Delta are fine; the third matrix is for cities that definitely cannot meet the standards, such as Beijing, so they belong to the cities that need to be improved; the fourth matrix is for cities whose environmental quality will continue to decline. For example, some places still need to develop their economies, which means deteriorating cities. Divide these cities into four categories and announce them to the whole society. We are promoting this matter. Professor Xue also promotes it from the perspective of public management. This is the real target responsibility system of local governments for environmental quality. In the revision of the "Atmospheric Law" ("Law of the People's Republic of China on the Prevention and Control of Air Pollution"), I focused on this hurdle but failed in the end. On the one hand, local governments are said to be responsible for environmental quality goals; on the other hand, they don’t even announce the timetable. How can they be responsible? The last one (the last phalanx) has political considerations, so I don't think it will be reported. Therefore, these cities are generally divided into the first three categories and announced to the whole country.
Collecting data on public health is difficult, so local governments can make some attempts. I suggest trying at the national level; ecological protection red lines can also be considered; the total amount control index is very controversial, and I am not very in favor of setting the total amount index The more, the better because now the national total control is very controversial, and there are some problems in the data on the relationship between environmental quality and emission reduction, so the national total control ends here. However, we can do more with quality for industrial and regional issues. In addition, I propose to take advantage of global environmental protection goals. China, a big developing country, pays more attention to climate change. For a series of environmental protection issues including emission issues, since we have signed the protocol, we just need to find a target that can be achieved.
The basic tasks have also evolved from environmental protection. Starting from the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan," the main focus is on pollution reduction, mainly COD and sulfur dioxide; during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan," the indicators will be expanded. There are also growing calls for environmental quality requirements, and some risk-related issues remain, including controlling heavy metals and chemicals. Of course, these control measures are not scientific; It is said that quality improvement is the core, but the quality has indeed deteriorated. If the quality has not improved, the common people do not recognize it. Therefore, these basic tasks basically include total amount control, risk methods, ecological protection, and system construction.
Policy Suggestion
The "Ten Measures for Air," "Ten Measures for Water," and "Ten Measures for Soil" are the most important. In addition, Minister Chen Jining proposed "National Enterprise Emission Standards." Because more than 40% of enterprises do not meet the standards, it is difficult to implement; there are also environmental risks, and the indicators mainly include some heavy metal areas or areas with dense chemical and chemical enterprises, such as the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Bohai Rim, etc.; In terms of ecological protection, the Fifth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed that green development should serve the country's major strategic layout, such as the three major strategic deployments of the 'Belt and Road' Initiative, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, and the Yangtze River. It is a sense that these major strategies should be developed in a green direction. The protection of the environment also serves as an escort for the green development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In addition, it is the corresponding investment. Now is the era of information explosion, and the figures related to environmental protection investment are huge.
Strategic Measures for environmental protection
The first is the spatialization of environmental functions. Now everyone pays more attention to this issue, especially the Fifth Plenum of the Central Committee put forward the most direct requirements for space control. Once the space layout is wrong, things will be particularly troublesome later. Therefore, the space layout is in line with the national policy from the perspective of environmental protection, and the main body is still the main functional area of the country.
The second is the greening of the national economy. The Fifth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China mentioned the concept of "green development." I understand that this includes two things: one is to let the green (economy) squeeze out the non-green (economy) in the current national economic system and improve economic development benefits, improve energy efficiency, and reduce energy emissions; the second is to form some green industries that contribute more to GDP, including pollution control. The more serious the pollution, the greater the investment in treatment and the greater the pull on GDP. Of course, there are other green industries, such as green energy saving, construction, clean energy, etc.
The third is the legalization of environmental protection. This is in line with the plan I just proposed for the 13th Five-Year Plan to have a plan of "full compliance of corporate pollution sources." This is the hope that we will truly implement corporate compliance.
Fourth, there is a market for environmental incentives. Because our traditional environmental protection is carried out through administrative means, now market economic means may be easier to implement than administrative means, and it is also fairer. The environmental protection plan we are discussing now, as well as the ecological compensation plan, has been in place for ten years but has not even issued a regulation. However, 18 provinces are now promoting paid sewage.
Fifth, diversification of governance subjects. It is mainly a question of the government, enterprises, and the public.
Sixth, the disclosure of environmental information. The most important condition for public participation is information disclosure. Non-disclosure of information ignores people's participation rather than public participation, so it has no effect. So information disclosure is the premise. Minister Chen Jining pointed out at the meeting yesterday that it is very appropriate to make disclosing environmental information an important starting point.
