I am very glad to have the opportunity to have an exchange on this energy model forum today. From the current point of view, more and more units are involved in the work of our energy model, and the level of model research and practical application have made great progress. Now The energy model is very important to us at present. From a domestic point of view, there are many complicated problems in the country to achieve green development and promote the transformation of the economic structure. For example, economic growth is slowing down under the new normal, and energy consumption is high. Industries, steel, cement, and coal have overcapacity.

The first aspect is to invest in a possibly more intensified model for these excess capacities. In addition, we need to promote industrial transformation, but these traditional industries are facing great difficulties. How to achieve both development and emission reduction under the new normal, a win-win situation for both, has theoretical and policy design and implementation issues. , the content involved is very complex, and it also involves the orientation of the interests of many stakeholders. The establishment and research of our model can be comprehensively researched and processed in a more comprehensive, systematic, and forward-looking manner.

The second aspect is the Paris climate conference facing the world in response to climate change. The world needs to transform to low-carbon development. Therefore, the world will achieve two goals and control greenhouse gas emissions. A carbon development transformation path choice requires more comprehensive research and a balance of the model. In order to solve the problem, it is necessary to manage and control the risk of the climate so that the future temperature rise can be controlled within the acceptable range of two degrees, and at the same time To promote the sustainable development of each country's own economy and society, and to promote world cooperation and win-win results, model research is very important, and all countries are adopting this method. Everyone has a common language and foundation for discussing models, which is conducive to mutual understanding and commonality.

For example, before the Sino-US joint statement, Chinese experts had four technical dialogues with the US expert team headed by the White House. The discussions were about your model and my model, how to choose your parameters, and how to choose my parameters. What is your result, and what is my result? Through expert technical dialogue, mutual understanding of emission reduction policies can be increased, so it can promote the reaching of consensus between the two parties and can indeed understand that the other party can achieve their INDC goals. It is easy, and great efforts must be made. Therefore, under the new situation, our model research work must be further strengthened and improved because our current economic development and transformation require many theoretical, institutional, and policy innovations. , these innovations will have a great driving force for transformation, but how these driving forces are well reflected in the model, not just the way of economic growth that considers the input of factors such as labor, capital, land and energy in the past, is of great importance to us. The construction of the model is also beneficial, so we strengthen exchanges and cooperation between different model groups, as well as exchanges and cooperation between foreign model groups, which is conducive to promoting the economic transformation of our country and also conducive to playing an active role in the global response to climate change. These are some of my views on the model.

Another point is that our meeting focused on discussing issues related to the Paris commitments. This year's Paris climate conference may work together to promote the formation of a legally binding Paris Agreement. If this agreement can be reached, it may follow the 1992 climate change agreement. After the signing of the Framework Convention on Change and the 1997 "Kyoto Protocol," another new starting point for the global process of addressing climate change because this is also a legally binding agreement after 2020. You can see that the characteristics of this agreement are different from the " The Kyoto Protocol, the "Kyoto Protocol" is a top-down emission reduction agreement stipulated by developed countries. The Paris Agreement is basically bottom-up. According to the nationally determined contribution targets proposed by each country, that is, INDC, on this basis, It is a bottom-up approach, but this bottom-up approach must also reflect some principles of our global response to climate change. One is the China-US, China and Europe, China and India, China and Pakistan, and the host country, China and France, have all issued such a joint statement, which reflects China's positive attitude to actively promote the success of the Paris Agreement on climate change. If you study the contents of these statements carefully, you can see that there are some differences between different countries, but they have gathered a lot of consensus. Maybe these are some basic tones and principles of the Paris Agreement. One of the very important principles is the principle of fairness, the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, and the principle of respective capabilities. Under this principle, it can undertake the responsibility and obligation of reducing emissions from bottom to top according to the national conditions of each country.

At the same time, this agreement should comprehensively and balanced reflect the elements of mitigation, adaptation, capital, technology, capacity building, and transparency because it is easier for everyone to focus on mitigation because mitigating greenhouse gas emissions can control temperature rise, however, developing countries, especially some of the poorest countries, are their top priority to adapt to climate change. Therefore, adaptation, mitigation ,and adaptation for developing countries cannot be separated from developed countries' financial and technical support. Thus, in the joint statement, especially in China and Europe In the Sino-French joint statement, it was particularly emphasized that developed countries should find ways to raise 100 billion U.S. dollars per year by 2020 to support developing countries in coping with climate change. Supporting other countries, especially poor developing countries, to deal with climate change is a very important principle of consensus we have reached.

The third point is the consensus reached on the basis of this principle, especially in the Sino-French joint statement that it is proposed to conduct an inventory every five years. All countries must formulate, implement and continuously revise their INDC. Everyone must take into account the global goal of controlling the temperature rise of two degrees because the world needs to take stock of whether everyone's INDC can achieve this two-degree goal so as to encourage everyone to continue to increase efforts. This agreement is a dynamic process to continuously increase the difficulty and intensity of INDC. Therefore, in this process, there is a very important point, which we have vigorously promoted in several joint statements. To achieve the goal of controlling temperature rise and protecting the climate, all countries must transform to a green and low-carbon economy, and to a climate-friendly economy. The transformation of social development means that the process of our international cooperation on climate change cannot be a game of any kind if it is a game of cooperation; on the one hand, countries must also achieve their own sustainable development while managing and controlling climate risks. For development, every country must achieve a win-win situation for development and climate protection. Another international cooperation process must strengthen this kind of cooperation among countries to achieve a win-win goal, not any game. Everyone will benefit and benefit through cooperation. This kind of space and ability for continuous development requires strengthening practical cooperation. Therefore, in the joint statements of China, the United States , and China, all these joint statements have pointed out the key areas of cooperation, including energy efficiency, new energy, and low-carbon cities. In terms of construction, intelligent transportation, etc., this kind of cooperation can bring a win-win effect.

Therefore, at the Paris climate conference, everyone looks forward to such a success. The atmosphere before the conference is better than that in Copenhagen. At the Copenhagen conference, developed countries wanted to press China to urge developing countries to commit. This is one of their goals. The starting point of this meeting is to promote consensus and a win-win situation. This could be a better foundation and atmosphere for the meeting. Of course, there may be some surprises at the Paris meeting because it is the principle of consensus among all parties. Some countries or small countries may come out to oppose it, and some problems may arise, but generally speaking, this is the mainstream direction of the international community's cooperation on climate change, and this direction will continue. China should play the responsibility of a big country. This is very important for us to participate in international climate governance actively , have more Chinese voices in the international arena, and play China's role. Therefore, we can actively promote the outcomes of the Paris Conference to achieve what other countries cannot. We must reach a consensus with the most important developed economies and the most important developing countries.

Thirdly, China has also proposed ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution targets. At the Climate Conference in Warsaw, each country was required to submit its own INDC document before the Paris Conference. The document we proposed is a very ambitious goal. These goals are briefly described below.

One is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 60%-65% by 2030 compared to 2005. This is a relative emission reduction goal. The goal proposed by developed countries, including the European Union and the United States, is to reduce all their greenhouse gas emissions . After 2020, a certain percentage will reduce the absolute emission reduction goal. We aim to reduce the intensity because our current economic growth rate is still relatively fast. Although the intensity of carbon dioxide output per unit of GDP has dropped significantly, the total amount will not reach the absolute amount of emission reduction, so China continues to improve the efficiency of unit carbon emission and unit energy consumption output. This is our core goal, which also reflects the characteristics of the development stage of developing countries. And China's national conditions, so to achieve such a goal, we must make great efforts. From 2005 to 2014, China's carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP dropped by 33.8%. From 2010 to 2014, During the 12th five-year period, the drop has dropped by 16% in the past four years, so our goal is 17%, which can be over fulfilled; if the 13th five-year plan continues to follow the central government’s 13th five-year proposal and guiding ideology, by 2020, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will reach 45%-50%, exceeding the 40%-45% goal that China promised at the Copenhagen meeting.

From 2005 to 2014, we dropped by 33.8%. In the same period, the rate of decline in developed countries was about 15%. The world’s average level basically remained unchanged. Therefore, China should be the world's leader in improving the output efficiency of unit carbon emissions. Compared with the goal of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40%-45% in 2020, this goal is more powerful. This goal's annual emission reduction rate should be more than 4% after 2020. The original goal was about 4%, so the intensity constantly increases. In addition, compared with developed countries, the EU's goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% compared with 1990 by 2030, and the United States' goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26%-28% compared with 2005 by 2025, according to the actual situation in 2011, and according to the estimation of the future GDP growth rate, generally speaking, it is 2%-2.5%, even lower than the estimated GDP growth rate of 2%. The annual decline rate of unit GDP and carbon dioxide emissions is still 4%, and our China needs to be above 4%. Of course, developed countries are reducing emissions in absolute terms because even if their annual unit GDP carbon emissions decline at a rate of 3%, but their economic growth is only 2%, they still have 1%. Therefore, due to the characteristics of China's current stage, we discuss the target according to our situation, and our efforts are very large.

The second goal is to increase the proportion of non-fossil energy to about 20% by 2030. In 2005, the old statistical yearbook was 6.8%, and the new statistical yearbook changed some energy figures to 7.4%. Overall It is relatively low. It reached 11.2% last year, and the target for 2020 is 15%. Now this target can be achieved. By 2030, it will reach a target of about 20%. The total energy demand in 2030 will be about 6 billion, about 1 ton of standard coal, and 12% is ,about 1.2 billion tons of standard coal. What is the concept of 1.2 billion tons of standard coal? Now Japan’s total energy demand is 650 million tons, which is roughly equivalent to twice the total energy demand of Japan. It is equivalent to Japan plus France and the United Kingdom, their total fossil energy and non-fossil energy demand. Because non-fossil energy is mainly electric power, nuclear energy, solar energy, hydropower, and wind power, some installed capacity of electric energy is mainly increased. Therefore, by 2030, about 20% of the primary energy supply of non-fossil energy will be realized, and the installed capacity of non-fossil energy will probably be 13. More than 100 million kilowatts, which is equivalent to the current total installed capacity of China, and also exceeds the current total installed capacity of power generation in the United States. Therefore, China needs to develop non-fossil energy. Developed countries have also proposed non-fossil energy targets. For example, the United States also proposed that by 2030, the carbon dioxide emissions of the power system should be reduced by 30% compared with 2005. However, the total demand for electricity in the United States is saturated. 10 million watts of renewable energy power generation can replace the original corresponding coal power generation, use natural gas, or use renewable energy, and replace the coal power installed capacity with new installed capacity. It only needs to shut down about 150 million kilowatts. The installed capacity of coal power can achieve this goal, and the corresponding construction of new energy can achieve this goal with the installed capacity of the new energy of fewer than 200 million kilowatts, plus the new natural gas power station. If China wants to achieve its goal, by 2030, from now on, we will build more than 1 billion kilowatts of new renewable energy and new energy installed capacity, and the United States will be enough to build 200 million kilowatts, which is more than five times that, so our unique development stage, in the case of an increase in total energy demand, greater efforts must be made to achieve such a large proportion of renewable energy.

The third commitment is the goal of a carbon dioxide peak, which is the goal that has attracted the most attention from the outside world. Just now, Professor Hu also talked about whether it can be advanced to 2025, and Professor Xue also asked whether there can be energy utilization. From the point of view of the development stage, by 2030, the peak of carbon dioxide will come earlier than the peak of nitrogen dioxide in developed countries. The United States and Japan will reach their peak around 2005. Their peak is when their per capita GDP exceeds 40,000 US dollars. For European countries, when carbon dioxide peaked in the 1980s and 1990s, which was relatively early, it also realized industrialization and post-industrialization. Their common feature is that when the peak is reached, the GDP growth rate is relatively slow. Generally, there is no more than 3% below this rate, so if we want to achieve the peak of carbon, a very important prerequisite is that the rate of decline in carbon intensity per unit of GDP is greater than the growth rate of GDP, that is, the growth of GDP, the new one The energy needs and carbon emissions need to be offset by reducing the emissions per unit of GDP. Therefore, developed countries peak when the GDP growth rate is above 3%, so the growth rate per unit of GDP and the carbon intensity per unit of GDP decline. The peak rate can be achieved at only about 3%. If China wants to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide by about 2030, according to the calculation and report of China's future GDP growth based on the current summary of about ten international model groups, there are studies on energy . As for the climate, there are also economists. They predict from the field of economics that by 2030, the growth rate of China's GDP the general results show that it is about 5%, some are 4%, and some are 6%. When we achieve a GDP growth rate of about 5%, we will achieve the peak of carbon dioxide. The annual reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP must be greater than 5%. The quarterly rate exceeded 5%, mainly due to the decline in economic growth, overcapacity in high energy-consuming industries, and structural adjustments. Whether we can maintain the decline in GDP carbon intensity at a rate of 5% or even higher, in the long run, is a challenge for us. Whether it can reach its peak in 2025 has a lot to do with the rate at which China's carbon intensity per unit of GDP declines and our expected potential growth rate of GDP.

With the slowdown of economic growth, if the energy consumption elasticity is the same, the decline rate of carbon intensity per unit of GDP will be reduced , which means the energy consumption elasticity must be lower. The actual situation is also the same. Whenever economic transformation and GDP growth slow down because the main impact is infrastructure investment and high energy-consuming industries, the elasticity of energy consumption will be relatively low . Hence,the decline in the carbon intensity of GDP The slowdown in economic growth has disadvantages and advantages. By 2030 to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide, the elasticity of energy consumption will drop to about 0.3%, 0.59% in the 11th Five-Year Plan, about 0.53% in the 12th Five-Year Plan, below 0.5% in the 13th Five-Year Plan, and 0.3% in 2030 About, if carbon falls by 0.3% and GDP grows by 15%, 35.5%, the total energy demand will increase at a rate of 1.5. By then, the demand will be 6 billion tons of standard coal, and the growth rate of 1.5% will be About 900 million tons of standard coal, which is still a large number, which means that at another time when our economy is growing, and energy demand is also increasing, carbon dioxide will reach its peak value if all newly supplied energy is non-fossil energy, and energy demand increases while carbon emissions decrease. That means that by around 2030, 20 million kilowatts of wind power installed capacity, 20 million kilowatts of solar power installed capacity, and about 10 million kilowatts of nuclear power installed capacity must be built every year because the installed capacity of hydropower has been saturated, and there is no such resource. That is to say, the current wind turbines are 2-3 megawatts. In 2030, if the average is 5 megawatts, there will be about 10 wind turbines every day. Now each nuclear power unit in a nuclear power plant is about one million kilowatts, and 10 million new installations are made every year. In terms of kilowatts, it means that about ten nuclear power plants will be put into operation every year, so this kind of development speed and intensity is difficult for any country to match.

China also proposed an INDC goal of strengthening afforestation and forest carbon sinks. By 2030, the stock of forests will increase by 4.5 billion cubic meters compared with 2005, equivalent to the carbon sink of fixed carbon dioxide, and the fixed carbon dioxide is 7.5 billion tons. Therefore, forest carbon sinks should be a bright spot in China because, from a global perspective, forest carbon sinks are still in a downward trend. Our goal must go through long time to reverse the loss of carbon sinks caused by deforestation. Only by making great efforts can we achieve this goal. Our core to achieving this goal is to promote the revolution of energy production and consumption because we mainly focus on carbon dioxide emissions in the field of energy, and domestic resources and environmental constraints are also due to rapid growth. The energy demand caused by it has also caused our current serious environmental quality problems. Therefore, promoting the revolution of energy production and consumption, vigorously saving energy, and changing the structure of energy is not the only way to deal with climate change and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Fundamental measures are also a very important aspect of promoting the transformation of the domestic economic development mode and alleviating the constraints of our resources and environment. That's why Professor Hu said that we need to formulate national and regional strategies. Carbon emissions in the eastern coastal areas of China should be the first to reach the peak so that there will be room for the development of the central and western regions to ensure that we will reach the peak in 2030. That’s why Beijing announced at the China-US Climate Summit held in Los Angeles in September this year that Beijing’s carbon dioxide emissions would peak by around 2020, ten years earlier than the national goal, which will play a positive leading role.

Therefore, in addition to formulating such a strategy, which will be incorporated into the 13th Five-Year Plan and the subsequently 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans as binding goals, in the Sino-US joint statement, we also proposed to establish a national unified carbon sink market by 2017, so that Use administrative means and market means to promote energy conservation and emission reduction and promote the transformation of economic development mode. Therefore, on the one hand, we are actively promoting the success of the UN Climate Conference; An opportunity, guided by our positive and ambitious goal of addressing climate change, to promote the transformation of our economic development mode and the reform of our system and mechanism, so that we can follow the world trend and be able to promote the economic development of our country.