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Home > Latest > Annual meeting and theme forum
China Energy Modeling Forum·2016 Winter Forum
Oct 19, 2016
Time: December 20-21, 2016
 
Venue: Conference Room 327, Main Building, Tsinghua University
 
December 20-21, 2016, "China Energy Modeling Forum" co-founded by Tsinghua University School of Public Administration, Center for Industrial Development and Environmental Governance (CIDEG) and US Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) ▪ 2016 Winter Forum” was held at Tsinghua University. The forum centered on the two themes of "Paris Agreement, 13th Five-Year Plan Goals and Carbon Emission Peak - Multi-model Comparative Research" and "China's Low Emission Development Strategy-Multi-Model Research", invited Tsinghua University, National Development and Reform Commission Energy More than 50 experts and scholars from research institutes, the National Climate Change Strategy Center, the National Information Center, the Environmental and Economic Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the Development Research Center of the State Council, Fudan University and China University of Mining and Technology attended the meeting. The meeting was divided into two parts. The first part mainly focused on the first topic of CEMF research "Carbon Emissions Peak". The participating energy model research teams made periodic results reports and listened to relevant suggestions from participating experts. The second part launched CEMF's second theme study "Multi-model Research on China's Low Emission Development Strategy", conducted a one-and-a-half-day discussion around the low-emission development strategy and its technical route, and announced the basic ideas of CEMF's second theme study , research framework and implementation technology path, etc.
 
The 2016 Winter Forum started with a welcome speech by Professor Xue Lan, director of the CEMF project, dean of the School of Public Administration of Tsinghua University, and director of CIDEG of Tsinghua University. Professor He Jiankun, chairman of the CEMF Academic Committee and former executive vice president of Tsinghua University, delivered a speech at the opening of the forum. He pointed out that the Paris Agreement’s 2030 carbon emission peak and greenhouse gas low emission strategy involve a series of large time and space issues such as economy, society, and energy. The coupling model of the energy system and economic system can provide a scientific basis for political decision-making. It is hoped that the models of each team can be fully exchanged on the CEMF forum, learn from each other's strengths, and better serve scientific decision-making.
 
Tian Chengchuan, Director of the Strategy Department of the National Development and Reform Commission's Department of Climate Change and Climate Change, and Professor Xue Lan, Dean of the School of Public Administration of Tsinghua University, Director of Tsinghua CIDEG, and Director of the CEMF Project, delivered keynote speeches at the meeting. Director Tian Chengchuan explained in detail the "13th Five-Year Ecological and Environmental Protection Plan" and related binding indicators for environmental development. He combined Kitakyushu City, Japan, which has transformed from serious pollution to a United Nations environmental model city in a short period of time. Recently, the chairman of Fuyao Glass Cao Dewang’s overseas investment and other examples pointed out that the key to environmental governance is concept and determination. It is necessary to consider not only low emissions, but also emission reduction and other social costs, and technological innovation is required. Professor Xue Lan agreed with Director Tian's emphasis on the change of concept that the key to environmental governance is. In his speech, he analyzed the political challenges, target challenges and implementation challenges faced by the 17 sustainable development goals of the United Nations in 2030, and took China How to achieve sustainable development goals as an example, put forward references and references for the realization of energy, economic and environmental policy goals.
 
The "Carbon Emissions Peak (First Theme Research)" report session was presided over by Li Shantong, a member of the CEMF Academic Committee and a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council. First of all, Liu Qiang, director of the Strategic Planning Department of the National Center for Climate Change Strategy Research and International Cooperation, reported on behalf of the forum the phased results of the first theme of the forum, "Carbon Emissions Peak". At present, there are many models used to predict the peak of carbon emissions. From the comparative analysis of the research results of several model teams participating in CEMF, it is found that: in terms of national-level carbon emissions based on industry-wide model predictions, although there are certain differences in peak levels, the basic judgment is that carbon emissions will peak in 2025-2030. The peak of carbon emissions in some industries is also relatively consistent with the judgment of industry experts. For example, the steel and cement industries will basically reach their peak between 2015 and 2020; the peak paths of the power and transportation sectors are relatively uncertain. The service demand of the two industries will still increase significantly, and the potential for emission reduction will also be large. Whether or not the peak time will be reached in the future will mainly depend on the choice of technology and policy. In addition, through model comparison and analysis, it is also found that when predicting the peak of carbon emissions and the realization path, whether it is an industry-wide model or a single industry model, due to the modeling concept, scenario setting, industry division boundary, and base year selection of each model, There is a lot of uncertainty in the model prediction results, which also provides a good direction for the forum to make use of model comparison analysis, improve model prediction capabilities, and interpretability and credibility of simulation results. Li Jifeng, an associate researcher at the Economic Forecasting Department of the State Information Center, reported using the CGE model to predict and analyze China's medium and long-term energy demand, pointing out the feasibility of realizing a low-emission strategy, showing that my country's end-use energy utilization efficiency will continue to improve steadily, and end-use energy peaks will appear Around 2040. Teng Fei, an associate professor at the Institute of Energy Economics and Environment of Tsinghua University, introduced the construction and research of China's carbon dioxide emission reduction analysis and benefit evaluation model, simulated the emission path of China's carbon dioxide under three different scenarios, and compared and analyzed China's carbon dioxide peak under the policy scenario time and the emission reduction contribution rate of each industry.
 
Subsequently, Li Jifeng, Liu Qiang, and Feng Xiangzhao, an associate researcher at the Environmental and Economic Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, respectively introduced the results of the research on carbon emission peaks in the steel industry, the power industry, the transportation industry, and the cement industry, and analyzed and compared the bottom-up construction The difference between the industry model, the whole industry model, the top-down CGE model and the input-output model in simulating the peak of carbon emissions. After the report, the on-site guests discussed and exchanged key issues such as the base year, service volume, and carbon price in the model research.
On the afternoon of December 20th, Professor He Jiankun presided over the launch of the second research theme of the forum, "China's Low Emissions Development Strategy-Multi-model Research", and introduced the background significance, expected results, and carbon emissions of China's low-emissions strategy research topic. Peak research convergence and other issues; clarified that the purpose of the forum "China's Low Emission Strategy Research" is to promote exchanges among model workers and to study and judge future social and economic development trends; and introduced the economic, experts and scholars in the fields of industry, transportation, construction and energy will exchange and discuss the topic of this research, with a view to the smooth development of the research work.
 
Hu Angang, dean of the National Conditions Research Institute of Tsinghua University and professor of the School of Public Administration of Tsinghua University, delivered a speech on the theme of "Major Trends of China's Economic and Social Development". He summarized several stages of China's development and proposed a three-step concept of green modernization for future development. Researcher Han Wenke, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission and a member of the CEMF Academic Committee, predicted China's medium and long-term energy growth trend from the perspective of the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. Researcher Jiang Kejun from the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission analyzed the simulation results of the 2-degree scenario and the 1.5-degree scenario from the perspective of low-carbon development and energy transition.
 
Subsequently, in the "Low-carbon Development Technology Route (1)" unit hosted by Zhang Jianyu, director of the US Environmental Protection Agency's China Program, Qian Haoqi from Fudan University, Li Yongliang, deputy director of the Industrial Development Department of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, and Tsinghua University Energy Economic Environment Dr. Wang Xin from the Institute introduced different technical paths for low-carbon development from the aspects of urban peak modeling, petrochemical industry and energy storage technology.
 
On the morning of December 21, Zhou Dadi, vice chairman of the China Energy Research Society, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, a senior researcher, and a member of the CEMF Academic Committee, presided over the "Low Emission Development Strategy: Transforming Development Costs into Economic Development Momentum" "unit. Jiang Yi, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, professor of the School of Architecture of Tsinghua University, and member of the CEMF Academic Committee, delivered a speech titled "Suggestions on Carbon Emission Accounting Methods", introducing the accounting methods for reasonably estimating carbon emissions from two aspects of production and consumption. Hu Xiulian, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, introduced the development history, current research progress and future trends of the AIM model group.
 
Researcher Han Wenke, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission and a member of the CEMF Academic Committee, presided over the "Low-carbon Development Technology Route (2)" unit. Academician Jiang Yi introduced the status and development trend of China's building energy consumption. The Ministry of Transport Scientific researcher Guo Jie, director of the Low-Carbon Center, introduced the low-carbon transformation strategy for China's transportation. Zhang Weidong, director of the Power Planning Department of China Ou Xunmin, associate professor of the Institute of Economic Environment, introduced the development status of China's electric vehicle industry and its impact on the energy environment. Participants had heated discussions on issues such as the utilization of underground space and maglev trains.
 
The unit of non-carbon dioxide gas emissions was presided over by Liu Qiang, director of the Strategic Planning Department of the National Center for Climate Change Strategy Research and International Cooperation. Guo Liping, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Environment and Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, introduced the current situation and future changes of non-carbon dioxide emissions from agricultural sources Trend; Dr. Ma Zhanyun from the Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences introduced the emission characteristics of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases in the field of solid waste treatment and the technical outlook for future emission reduction scenarios. A comparative study pointed out that considering non-carbon dioxide gases to form a multi-greenhouse gas emission reduction path has more advantages than considering carbon dioxide emission reduction paths alone. Shan Baoguo, director of the Institute of Economics and Energy Supply and Demand, State Grid Energy Research Institute, summarized the global trend of energy development and points out that with the transformation of the energy structure in the future, it will be the main trend in the future that new energy will replace traditional fossil energy in the power generation field and electric energy will replace fossil energy in the terminal field.
 
Next, Oleg Lugovoy, a senior economist at the Environmental Protection Agency, briefly reviewed the relevant situation of CEMF's first theme research, and introduced in detail the basic ideas and implementation paths of CEMF's second theme "China's low-emission development strategy" research. Afterwards, experts in various fields The study design was discussed and exchanged, and rationalization suggestions were formed.
 
At the end of the meeting, on behalf of the CEMF Secretariat, Qin Hu, project director of the American Environmental Protection Association, expressed his gratitude to the guests for their attendance and support, and pointed out that CEMF has two important positions at this stage: one is to promote understanding and communication, and through the energy model forum, the research teams communicate with each other. Communication, enhances the understanding of each type of model; the second positioning is improvement, through communication, not only to learn other people's models, but also to understand the shortcomings of your own model to improve the model. CEMF invites more modeling teams to participate in CEMF's work, and especially encourages young researchers.
 
The 2016 Winter Forum of China Energy Modeling Forum (CEMF) ended successfully with a discussion of the guests. The goal of the China Energy Modeling Forum (CEMF) is to further improve the level of rational decision-making in China by strengthening discussions and improving the use of energy, environment, and economic models. The China Energy Modeling Forum will provide an interactive platform for Chinese energy and environment model developers and policy analysts. The core of the forum is the model research team. The forum will organize special working teams for different issues, and invite international modeling teams and experts to participate in discussions on special issues as needed.