CEMF May 14, 2015

On the morning of May 14, the "China Energy Modeling Forum Launch Meeting (CEMF)" co-founded by the Center for Industrial Development and Environmental Governance (CIDEG) of Tsinghua University and the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) was held in CIDEG. This kick-off meeting invited many domestic and foreign energy model research teams and energy model experts to participate in the meeting. The kick-off meeting mainly discussed core issues such as the history and experience of international and domestic development of energy modeling, model development and model team building, interaction between model teams and decision makers, and the organizational structure and work plan of the China Energy Modeling Forum. The kick-off meeting was presided over by Chen Ling, an associate professor at Tsinghua School of Public Administration and deputy director of CIDEG.

Activities

On the morning of May 14, the "China Energy Modeling Forum Launch Meeting (CEMF)" co-founded by the Center for Industrial Development and Environmental Governance (CIDEG) of Tsinghua University and the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) was held in CIDEG. This kick-off meeting invited many domestic and foreign energy model research teams and energy model experts to participate in the meeting. The kick-off meeting mainly discussed core issues such as the history and experience of international and domestic development of energy modeling, model development and model team building, interaction between model teams and decision makers, and the organizational structure and work plan of the China Energy Modeling Forum. The kick-off meeting was presided over by Chen Ling, an associate professor at Tsinghua School of Public Administration and deputy director of CIDEG.

Professor Xue Lan, Dean of the School of Public Policy and Management of Tsinghua University, Director of Tsinghua CIDEG, and Dan Dudek, Vice President of the Environmental Protection Agency, delivered speeches at the kick-off meeting. Professor Xue Lan first introduced the purpose of launching the Energy Modeling Forum, and announced the official launch of the "China Energy Modeling Forum (CEMF)". He mentioned that energy models have increasingly become an important support for scientific decision-making, and it has become a very important trend to strengthen the construction and communication of model teams and enhance the mutual understanding of modeling teams. Dan Dudek pointed out that good decision-making depends on information and analysis technology, but with the increasingly complex external environment and analysis technology, it is difficult for government decision-makers to understand the "black box" of the model, so a modeling team with highly professional capabilities is required to provide government provide a basis for decision-making. Therefore, the form of cooperative discussion based on forums is very necessary.

Professor He Jiankun, Dean of the Institute of Low-Carbon Economy, Tsinghua University and Chairman of the Academic Committee of the China Energy Modeling Forum, delivered a speech. Professor He Jiankun talked about the history of China's energy model. China's energy model began in the 1980s. The development and research of energy models have influenced the revision of China's energy strategic goals to a certain extent. He said that a model is a simplification, induction and prediction of the real world, which can reveal trends to a certain extent, but it takes at least 5-10 years or even longer experiments and analysis to develop and apply a good model. In addition, the understanding of the model mechanism does not lie in the model operation itself, but in the grasp and discussion of reality. Understanding beyond the model can really improve our model construction level. Afterward, Professor Xue Lan introduced the organizational structure and work plan of the China Energy Modeling Forum. In 2015, two large-scale seminars were planned to discuss relevant decision-making scenarios and models. The main focus of the forums is the prediction of CO2 emissions, environmental pollution and energy consumption during the 13th Five-Year Plan. The forum will also organize occasional small-scale seminars to conduct regular communication on model development experience and results.

In the second half of the kick-off meeting, the participating experts had heated round-table discussions on topics such as energy model development experience, international exchanges and cooperation of energy model teams, energy models and government decision-making. Professor Wang Yi pointed out that the Chinese model has entered a new stage of development, from the development of simple models in the past to the pursuit of improving policy quality, especially emphasizing policy simulation methods. Matching problems of China's economic development mechanism, rapid handling of uncertainties, closed team communication problems, model expansion problems, etc. Robyn also raised the issue of the interaction between researchers and decision-making. How to improve the predictability of the model and realize sharing ,in reality ,should be the focus of the energy model team. Afterward, the participating model team members conducted extensive and in-depth exchanges based on the research focus of their respective models, decision-making experience and problems in the model simulation.

The China Energy Modeling Forum (CEMF) aims to provide an interactive communication platform for professional modeling teams and decision makers at home and abroad, and promote policy analysis and decision-making dialogues in the fields of energy, economic development, environmental protection, population health and climate change. Improve the modeling capabilities of China's local research institutions and improve the level of energy and environmental science decision-making.