CEMF Expert Viewpoint Review | Focus on Beautiful China in 2035, Towards "Carbon Neutrality" in 2060
Sep 25, 2020
Introduction
President Xi Jinping announced in his speech at the general debate of the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly on September 22 that "China will increase its nationally determined contributions, adopt more powerful policies and measures, and strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. Strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060". On the evening of September 23, the Industrial Development and Environmental Governance Research Center of Tsinghua University, the US Environmental Defense Fund and the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED) jointly hosted the China Energy Modeling Forum 2020 New York Climate Week Special Event: 2035 Low-Carbon Development Webinars with Beautiful China. The symposium focused on promoting the 2060 "carbon neutral" goal with the 2035 beautiful China goal, and had a heated discussion.
The wonderful views of the participating experts are summarized as follows for readers' reference
Virtual Photo
He Jiankun
Deputy Director of the National Climate Change Expert Committee, Former Executive Vice President and Professor of Tsinghua University, Chairman of the Academic Committee of the China Energy Modeling Forum
China's proposal to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is a major decision for China to address climate change, demonstrating China's confidence in addressing climate change and its responsibility as a major country. In order to achieve this goal, China must adhere to the policy orientation of green recovery and low-carbon transformation, increase energy conservation and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and lay the foundation for achieving the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030; The peak period is very critical; we must strengthen the goal of reducing carbon dioxide intensity per unit of GDP, and at the same time increase the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption; we must focus on the carbon peaks of eastern coastal cities and key industries such as steel, cement, and petrochemicals ; must accelerate the development of renewable energy, while strictly controlling the growth of coal consumption, and strive to achieve zero growth in coal consumption, or even negative growth.
After the peak of carbon dioxide emissions in 2030, it is necessary to switch to a rapid emission reduction track as soon as possible. 2035 is a very important time node for the realization of the carbon neutral goal. To achieve a fundamental improvement in the ecological environment by 2035, it is far from enough to rely solely on end-of-the-environmental governance measures. It is necessary to significantly reduce the consumption of fossil energy such as coal and oil, vigorously promote the change and adjustment of the energy structure, and achieve low-carbon development. A win-win situation of environmental quality compliance and greenhouse gas emission reduction. Therefore, 2035 is an important turning point in the economic development mode and carbon dioxide emission reduction. It is necessary to promote the improvement and perfection of models and methodologies, and strengthen the theoretical research of 2035.
Li Shantong
Researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council
After the COVID-19 epidemic, in the next 10-15 years, the new situation, new situation and new environment that China will face in the course of its low-carbon development towards 2035 will have new impacts on the scenario assumptions and simulation analysis in future model construction. Changes in China's demographic structure, population, aging population, and fertility rate have led to changes in labor productivity and consumption patterns, which in turn affect the national savings rate and future investment rate; the increase in the new crown epidemic has amplified global uncertainties and undermined global economic growth. The production and supply chain of the global economy led to the recession of the global economy and the contradiction between supply and demand, which reduced the anti-risk capabilities of global and multinational companies; The industrial chain is reorganized; the industrial and technological revolution has had a huge impact on the future, and emerging technologies such as digital economy, 3D printing and AI technology have changed the economic development model, and have had a great impact on global economic development, global value chains, business services and their governance models had a profound impact.
Sino-US relations and the new crown epidemic have put forward new requirements for China's future development pattern and security development in 2035. The dual cycle pattern will have a major impact on the future social economy. Future social development will comprehensively take into account higher quality and more efficiency , Fairer, more sustainable and safer development; the realization of the goal of carbon neutrality, the construction of a beautiful China in 2035 will play a very critical role, the construction and development of future models must strengthen the consideration of new strategies.
Zhang Yongsheng
Director of the Institute of Ecological Civilization, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
CCICED invites consultants
Beautiful China is actually a matter of development methods: the goal of beautiful China cannot be compared with the modernization of industrialized countries. The developed countries propose to achieve near-zero carbon emissions or green development, which is to rely on imports to achieve near-zero carbon emissions. This model It cannot be extended to the whole world; From the perspective of sustainable development goals, the beauty goals of developed countries have not actually been realized, at least not completely. The beauty goals of the West are based on the traditional industrialization model, which highly relying on high resource consumption, high environmental damage, and high emissions, this model is not suitable to be extended to all countries; the concept of ecological civilization is global, it is the fundamental way to realize a beautiful China, and it is also a fundamental way to realize the SDGs. Ecological civilization The model can be promoted globally; to truly achieve the so-called goals of beautiful China, beautiful Europe, and beautiful Europe, it is necessary to jump out of the traditional industrialization thinking and deeply reflect on the concept of modernization; only by realizing green production and consumption In order to achieve carbon decoupling; the new crown epidemic has given rise to new development concepts, and green recovery is actually a process of reshaping the economic system, environmental system and spatial pattern, and is the key to achieving the goal of green and low-carbon development and carbon neutrality.
Jiang Kejun
Researcher, Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission
Existing research and the work of the China Modeling Forum give China the confidence to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality before 2060; the key to the realization of the goal of carbon neutrality is the issue of the energy transition. Carbon neutrality requires the energy system to be completed by 2050 or 2060. In the past, it was necessary to achieve no emissions and rely more on breakthroughs in major technologies such as BECCS; the goal of carbon neutrality is not just a matter of climate change, but essentially a competition between technology and economy; the goal of neutralizing greenhouse gases will lead to future economic patterns Huge changes have taken place; the key to achieving the goal of carbon neutrality lies in how to implement it. The 14th Five-Year Plan is a key time node for realizing the 2035 beautiful China and the goal of carbon neutrality; the road to carbon neutral energy transformation has been very clear. Research on carbon-neutral energy transition paths at home and abroad is very clear. Before 2035, the proportion of non-fossil energy in the energy structure needs to be significantly increased.
Nathaniel KEOHANE
Senior Vice President, Climate Change, EDF
The goal of carbon neutrality proposed by China in 2060 is very important. I have observed that the international community greatly recognizes this goal , and the response is very positive. If China can achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, it will be a game changer completely. matter. The realization of this goal depends on the crucial 10-15 years, and the next decade is crucial to China and the whole world. The carbon market is an effective tool for the government to curb carbon emissions, and at the same time it can develop a low-carbon economy and lead the whole world into a low-carbon economy.
Lei Hongpeng
China Chief Representative of UK Children's Investment Foundation
China will continue to play a leading role in global climate change; what exactly does carbon neutrality mean, we may need to do further analysis and clarification; 2035 is a very critical time point, we must strengthen various research and Action; Quantitative analysis of energy, industry and economic content, reflect beautiful China, and promote the realization of the carbon neutral goal in 2060; focus on key industries such as coal and the energy transformation and upgrading of key provinces such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia; strengthen international cooperation, China and Europe Integration, play the role of international institutions, promote the formation of more global consensus, and cooperate to promote more climate change work.
Bai Bo
General Manager of China-US Green Fund
To achieve such climate goals, it is necessary for us to mobilize all parts of society and let the private sector take action; strengthen cross-border cooperation, use NGOs and other institutions to jointly promote education and guide people to some changes in green consumption and lifestyle; promote Private institutions take action to participate in the work of addressing climate change. From the perspective of enterprises, they can use the goal of carbon neutrality to guide the green and low-carbon development of enterprises; use the realization of carbon neutrality as a financial tool to promote sustainable development; let green development become a new driving force, we have explored a set of effective methods to organically combine market returns and carbon neutrality goals in a market-oriented and sustainable way to achieve such a dual goal. In terms of specific actions, the first carbon neutral fund aimed at China's 2060 carbon neutral goal has been established: the Asian Green Fund, which aims to promote technological development and innovation, especially new material technology, new process technology, digital A series of technologies such as artificial intelligence, 5G, and automation will further realize the green upgrading and transformation of the industry.
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