On September 16, the China Energy Model Forum (CEMF) held a seminar on the progress of China's low-emission development strategy in 2050. Representatives of major participating units from the macroeconomics, energy system, waste and non-carbon dioxide emissions, agriculture and land use, climate change impact and adaptation, and environment and health groups attended the meeting. Researcher Hu Xiulian chaired the seminar from the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission. The four research groups of the two research groups of macroeconomics and energy system introduced the latest work progress reports. The participating experts discussed the core issues under the theme research framework, including key setting of socio-economic parameters, global carbon emission space and China's share before 2050, links of different types of energy, environment, and economic models, as well as the base year and step size of the models, etc. issues were discussed in depth.
Researcher He Jianwu from the Development Strategy and Regional Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council first introduced the setting of important parameters of my country's 2050 macroeconomics and the judgment of future development trends by the team of the Development Research Center of the State Council. As an important support for this theme research, the macroeconomic working group’s judgments on key basic data such as population and urbanization rate, as well as future trends such as economic growth rate, industrial structure changes, consumption structure, and trade, will be set in the theme research scenarios play an important role in. Researcher He shared the latest research focus of their team, such as exploring the policy framework to support the transformation of my country's economy from high-speed development to high-quality development based on international development experience, as well as the adjustment of scenario assumptions; characteristics, judging China's 2050 development vision.
Dai Hancheng, a researcher at the School of Environment, Peking University, used the CGE model to analyze the economic growth path, industrial structure, and environmental and economic impact of key regions in China, determine the influencing factors of environmental pollutants and carbon emissions in different industries, and predict the development path of low emissions. Researcher Dai said that future research on a reasonable low-emission development strategy will be determined through the analysis of emission reduction paths in typical and representative key provinces.
Dr. Wang Hailin, a postdoctoral fellow at the Institute of Energy, Environment and Economics of Tsinghua University, introduced the latest development and research progress of the C-GEM model analysis framework. The C-GEM model has recently been calibrated against the latest data based on GTAP9, with the aim of analyzing China's economic, energy and emission development from a global perspective. In the next step, his team will analyze the emissions undertaken by China under the global emission reduction obligation sharing scheme, and put forward targeted suggestions on the scenario design of China's low-emission development path.
Zhou Sheng, a researcher at the Institute of Energy, Environment and Economics of Tsinghua University, shared the relevant research carried out using the GCAM-TU model, such as the simulation of the development path of energy consumption at the global level, the feasibility study of a 2-degree temperature rise, and the latest progress on the peak emission of industrial sectors . Researcher Zhou focused on the scenario setting of the model. He believes that the current commonly used 2-degree scenarios or 1.5-degree scenarios are both deep carbon emission reduction scenarios, and one can be selected in the scenario setting. In addition, Researcher Zhou also expressed his insights on the determination of uncertain factors in the study of low-emission development paths.
During the discussion session, the guests discussed and analyzed issues such as CEMF theme study II: 2050 China's low-emission development strategy research scenario setting, model methodology, key regions, key industries, research boundaries and output, and innovation points of this study.
