Home

About CEMF

Projects

Publications

Models & Databases

Latest

中文|English
Home > Latest > Technical Seminar
CEMF 6th Technical Seminar--Energy System Model
Oct 20, 2017
CEMF October 20, 2017
 
Time: October 18-19, 2017
 
Location: Beijing, China
 
From October 18th to 19th, 2017, the China Energy Modeling Forum Energy System Modeling Seminar was held in Beijing. The meeting was co-chaired by Mr. Zhou Dadi and Mr. Jiang Kejun from the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission. The seminar brought together model teams from Tsinghua University, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Fudan University, Xiamen University, Renmin University of China, China University of Petroleum and other research institutes. The scholars present focused on the theme of China's low-emission development strategy and discussed the research characteristics of their respective models, The main conclusions and related thoughts were discussed in depth. The teams actively compared each other's model assumptions, parameter settings, and conclusions, and put forward their prospects for how to learn from each other and how to further cooperate. They also discussed technical issues such as data source processing and industry segmentation.
 
Mr. Zhou Dadi chaired the meeting on the morning of the 18th. He first briefly introduced the background of the CEMF Topic Research 2. He specifically mentioned that formulating a low-carbon development strategy is long-term work, so the model team should not only give conclusions, but also It is necessary to think about how to generalize the conclusions to policies. CEMF provides such a platform for in-depth discussions and consensus building. He encouraged all the outstanding teams present to make good use of such a platform to promote understanding and mutual communication.
 
Qin Hu from EPA introduced CEMF and the research theme of this issue to the participants on behalf of the secretariat. The original intention of the Model Forum was to establish a communication platform between energy model development teams, and to establish a dialogue exchange platform between energy model development and policy decision makers. The research theme of this issue "China's low-emission development strategy" will follow these two goals and carry out a three-year research plan. A series of conferences, and some academic achievements are expected to be produced.
 
Researcher Jiang Kejun, as a participant or leading author of recent IPCC assessment reports, reported the recent international and domestic research directions in the field of climate change models, and further demonstrated the progress of his group's work. Mr. Jiang focused on the scenario study on global warming of 1.5 degrees in the sixth assessment report. This part of the work is an international research hotspot. However, it is currently mainly guided by EU scientists, and the relevant research teams in my country have rarely been involved. Other noteworthy research directions include the constraints and associations of energy, agriculture, and water, the setting analysis of specific parameters in energy transition models, and the closed-loop analysis of climate change mitigation and adaptation costs and benefits. The above research directions can also be applied to regional studies in China.
 
Professor Qi Ye from Tsinghua University introduced our team's research on air pollution control and energy emission reduction. Based on the government's policy on total energy consumption control and the estimates of the decarbonization rate given by various modeling teams, the team used a simplified calculus model to infer the range of the peak time of carbon emissions. At the same time, Professor Qi also boldly guessed that because the global low-carbonization rate is still accelerating, China's current carbon emissions may enter a plateau period.
 
Professor Chen Wenying from Tsinghua University introduced the modeling steps and application work of the MARKAL/TIMES model developed by her team. MARKAL and TIMES are optimization models for the entire energy system. Chen Wenying first explained to everyone how to reasonably describe the energy system through the model, and then introduced the application of the model in the research on the relationship between energy and water resources and in the IPCC scenario simulation prediction wait. A feature of its team model is the introduction of endogenous technology learning into the global model, which can more accurately describe regional development.
 
Associate Researcher Liu Qiang of the National Center for Climate Change gave a detailed introduction to the analysis model of China's long-term low-emission strategy developed by his team. Relevant models include a top-down carbon emission spatial allocation model, and a bottom-up industry-specific SACC model, which can be further divided into sub-models for technical path analysis and policy assessment. Finally, based on the technical model, he gave some discussions on the difficulties of the model: this includes the analysis of the correlation of economic factors, changes in the energy system, changes in the reform of the energy system, the setting of specific economic parameters involved in the model, and the impact of the carbon market. , cross-sectoral technology analysis, etc.
 
Associate Professor Teng Fei, also from Tsinghua University, introduced his team's model research on non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases. Non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases are a topic that has received relatively little attention. However, according to Teng Fei's team's calculations, if it is not controlled, China's total non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions will reach 3.3 billion tons by 2050. The current team's model has added non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from energy activities, agriculture, waste and industrial processes to the original energy model. And conduct overall and decomposition analysis on the results of different energy emission reduction scenarios, paying special attention to the synergistic emission reduction effect.
 
Dr. Yang Xi from China University of Petroleum introduced the recent improvement and expansion of the China-MAPLE model on behalf of his team. His team's bottom-up energy model is mainly linked to the environmental pollution section based on the process technology level, which can output conventional pollutants and health effects. Its main feature is that it considers the scenario of end-of-life treatment, which supports the concept of source reduction and clean production importance. Models are currently being applied to analyze the cost-effectiveness of INDC targets.
 
The afternoon session on the 18th was hosted by Mr. Jiang Kejun. Dr. Fu Sha from the National Climate Change Strategy Research Center first shared the main research results of the PECE Model, an energy system model developed by her team. The scenario setting and parameter assumptions of the model take into account the background of the new normal, the goals of the 13th Five-Year Plan, and the temperature rise range of 2 degrees Celsius. The output of the model includes the emission reduction effects and peak time of different industries and sectors. In the future, the team will also construct a global model that considers the “Belt and Road” strategy and apply it to policy impact assessment.
 
Associate Professor Yao Xin from Xiamen University introduced the definition of biased technological progress and how his own research applies this setting to climate models. Using the flow of scientists as a measure of the difference in technological progress, the research results show that compared with exogenous technological progress, when the same emission reduction effect is achieved, endogenous technological progress can use a lower emission estimate, and scientists will automatically reduce emissions from pollution. The department shifted to the cleaning department.
 
Associate Professor Wang Ke from Renmin University of China shared the research results of China's 2050 low emission strategy based on the bottom-up model. Their model mainly focuses on the peak time under different scenarios, the emission path after the peak, and the changes in infrastructure investment after the peak. Based on the conclusions of the model, the most critical driving factor in the long-term goal is coal consumption; while efficiency and structure are the fundamental driving forces for emission reduction. The model is considering strengthening the description of China's urbanization changes, economic driving factors, etc. At the same time, it is necessary to continue to calibrate the model parameters.
 
On behalf of Professor Wu Libo's team, Dr. Qian Haoqi from Fudan University shared their progress in the construction of dynamic multi-regional CGE models and carbon market policy simulation research. It focuses on the method of studying carbon peak and carbon leakage through global carbon flow analysis. The team uses a Monte-Carlo simulation method to select the carbon price growth path, analyzes the carbon flow in the form of an input-output table, and finally uses the global value chain to decompose the carbon flow based on production and international trade. Later, this method will also be applied to the analysis of global carbon flow in the post-Paris Agreement era.
 
Researcher Zhao Daiqing from Guangzhou Institute of Energy Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences introduced the low-carbon energy model and its application for the development of Guangdong. From the perspective of actual landing needs, she analyzed the setting background and overall framework of the dynamic CGE model in the two districts of Guangdong Province. She introduced the model's carbon emission total control decomposition and emission reduction policy research in Guangdong Province, and the macroeconomic impact of Guangdong's carbon trading mechanism applications in assessment studies, synergistic analysis of carbon and pollutant reductions.
 
Researcher Wu Jing from the Institute of Science and Technology Strategy Consulting of the Chinese Academy of Sciences introduced the MRICES model developed by the team and its application on behalf of her team. The MRICES model is a global multi-regional centralized evaluation model. Wu Jing introduced the modeling principle, regional division, model structure and capacity, and key parameters of each module. At present, the model is mainly used in the simulation of emission reduction target scenarios and the simulation of emission reduction policies.
 
Associate Professor Yu Biying from Beijing Institute of Technology introduced BIT Research Center research work. These include sector-specific energy technology models at the national and regional levels, behavioral technology energy environment models based on differences in behavior patterns of different households, and climate change comprehensive assessment models that include two modules of the earth system and the economic system. She also shared that in the process of model development research and application, parameter estimation, coupling between different models, and construction of closed-loop systems are all difficulties to be overcome.
 
Associate Researcher Zhou Sheng from Tsinghua University introduced the application of GCAM model in China. The essence of the GCAM model is the mainstream global model of the IPCC, which highly integrates modules such as economy, energy, land use, water resources, and climate simulation, and adopts discretely selected technical models. The Tsinghua version of the GCAM model subdivides the industrial sector, paying special attention to high-energy-consuming industries; and calibrates the data of the base year and related key years, and optimizes the parameters.
 
 
On the morning of the 19th, researcher Tian Zhiyu from the Energy Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission introduced the application of the model in "Reshaping Energy: China". The model takes the LEAP model as the backbone, coupled with models such as power dispatch optimization, general equilibrium, and service volume, and completes an overview of the national energy revolution route and action plan. field-specific research.
 
Oleg Lugovoy, a senior economist at the Environmental Defense Fund of the United States, introduced the research trend of open source models worldwide,, and showed the construction and research progress of open source energy system models based on R software and EnergyRt package.
 
Finally, researcher Zhou Dadi analyzed the development blueprint proposed in the report of the "Nineteenth National Congress", summarized the development direction of the current low-carbon development energy model in China, discussed how to incorporate the development blueprint into the model research, and pointed out Some hot topics that require in-depth research.