CEMF August 20, 2017

 

Time: August 20, 2017

 

Venue: Beihang University

 

On the afternoon of August 20, 2017, an academic seminar on "China's 2050 Low-Carbon Socioeconomic Development Scenario and Model Methodology Research" was held at Beihang University. This seminar is one of the sub-sessions of the 5th National Academic Annual Conference on Low-Carbon Development Management. It is specifically organized by the China Energy Modeling Forum and has attracted many experts and scholars in the industry.

 

The meeting was presided over by Researcher Li Shantong from the Development Research Center of the State Council, and Professor Fan Ying, Dean of Beihang School of Economics and Management, delivered an opening speech.

 

Professor Hu Angang from Tsinghua University first brought a report entitled "Sustainable Development Trend of China's Social Economy in 2030". Professor Hu Angang pointed out that China's economy is currently in a new normal state of transition from high-speed growth to medium-to-high speed growth, and this trend will continue until 2030 or even 2035. After entering the new normal, China's economic growth needs to shift from capital-driven and factor-driven to innovation-driven; China's total economic share in the world will increase from 19% in 2015 to 24% in 2030; at the same time, China's The urbanization rate will also reach about 70%. Both economic growth and urbanization will bring demand for electricity, and will also change the demand elasticity of electricity. It has been recognized internationally that China has become the world's largest energy producer, largest energy consumer, and will also be the largest energy technology innovator; China's promotion of the green energy revolution will provide a very important development opportunity for the world.

 

Zhang Jianping, director of the Regional Economic Research Center of the Academy of the Ministry of Commerce, discussed the impact of the "Belt and Road" on China's future social and economic development. China's "Belt and Road" initiative is a platform for development, cooperation, and market potential, involving business and service leasing, finance, energy and many other industries. In terms of energy, China will promote international capacity cooperation by exporting superior production capacity. Now the "One Belt, One Road" initiative has been listed by the United Nations as an important platform to achieve the United Nations' 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). China is ahead of many developing countries in many SDG indicators. In the process of "One Belt, One Road" cooperation, China's experience, practices, and capabilities will help many developing countries jointly achieve the 2030 SDG goals.

 

Du Yang, a researcher at the Population Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, discussed the trend of China's population change in 2050. China is already a country with an ultra-low birth rate, the population structure continues to change, and aging is an irreversible trend. Population development trends have brought corresponding changes in labor supply, savings rate, consumption patterns, etc., and also provided the possibility for low-carbon development. The reduction of the labor force makes the development mode of factor accumulation and the extensive growth mode unsustainable; it reduces the level of consumption, and at the same time transforms the consumption mode into a more low-carbon mode.